The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, as the Auburn Tigers can attest. Firing Gus Malzahn after eight straight winning seasons wasn’t the answer leaving the program to pick up the pieces from the failed Bryan Harsin era. Two straight losing campaigns and Auburn again has a new coach in Hugh Freeze. No stranger to the rigors of the SEC with a previous stint at Ole Miss, Freeze has plenty of work ahead of him to get Auburn back to respectability following a 5-win season in 2022. It was the fewest victories for the Tigers in a decade. With scattered expectations the team’s win total was set 6.5, a number not reached in the past three seasons.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Auburn Tigers
Over 6.5 ( -146 )
Under 6.5 ( +129 )
Without a doubt the Tigers have a quality coach in Freeze, who’s won nearly 69 percent of his games over a 12-year career. However, he will bring added attention to the program due to his recruiting transgressions while at Ole Miss. Freeze put the Liberty Flames on the college football map leading them to 34 wins and four bowl appearances over the past four years. Known for his ability to recruit top talent Freeze will get Auburn back, though it likely takes a few years.
Roster
In order to be competitive in the rugged SEC the Tigers need to upgrade several positions on both sides of the football. Taking advantage of the transfer portal Freeze landed Michigan State’s Payton Thorne to solidify the quarterback position. In 12 games last season Thorne completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,679 yards and 19 touchdowns. Offense was a sore spot last season ranking 11th in the SEC averaging 24.8 points and 5.7 yards per play. The Tigers also boasted one of the poorest passing attacks averaging less than 173 yards to rank 119th nationally while QBs combined for more interceptions than touchdowns.
The rebuild starts on the offensive side of the football and Freeze hit the portal hard adding several linemen to bolster a shaky group. A quartet of pass catchers was also added to help the numbers, the biggest being Ohio State’s four-star recruit Caleb Burton. There is one familiar face in the backfield in Jarquez Hunter, who rushed for 668 yards and 6.4 yards per attempt behind a sketchy line in 2022.
Considering how bad the Tigers were on both sides of the football last season it was a minor miracle they won five games. To shore up one of the worst defensive units in program history, Ron Roberts was hired as the new coordinator. It shouldn’t take much to improve on the 2022 squad that allowed the third-most points in program history and ranked 98th nationally in scoring defense.
Just as they did on offense, the Tigers used the portal landing several pieces that could provide an immediate impact. The interior line was upgraded with Power 5 transfers, including Kentucky’s Justin Rodgers. Pressuring opposing QBs was an issue last season ranking in the bottom half of the SEC with 26 sacks. App State transfer Jalen McLeod is expected to supply immediate relief after registering 6.0 sacks a season ago.
The secondary was a strong spot in 2022 ranking among the top 25 nationally in efficiency and yards per pass attempt. The group returns intact led by corners Jeremiah Pritchett and D.J. James. However, the defense recorded only six interceptions last season, second fewest in the SEC.
Schedule
What should be early season cakewalks against UMass and Cal will be far from it. And let’s not talk about the grueling SEC West slate that has Auburn traveling to LSU and Texas AM. They also have a date with Georgia in a cross-over game before finishing with the annual Iron Bowl. At least that’s a home game. Seven wins is a big ask for this group but they should at least be better as the season progresses giving them hope for a few upsets.
Prediction
We’re not anticipating a quick turnaround, especially since the Tigers compete in the ultra competitive SEC West and the turnover in personnel is noteworthy. Non-conference games that should be pushovers aren’t that leaving the Tigers with a 6-win ceiling. The X-factor is how well the abundance of transfers adjusts to the program. If they play well an upset along the way could cash the over, but that’s a big if.
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