If the Baylor Bears follow a familiar script in 2023 they should be around the 10-win mark putting them over their projected total of 7.5. In 2019 the Bears went 11-3 followed by a 2-7 mark in 2020, Dave Aranda’s first with the program. The Bears established a school record in 2021 winning 12 games, including the Big 12 championship and knocking off Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. Entering last season with high expectations, BU stumbled losing its final four games for a disappointing 6-7 finish. How the team performs depends a lot on Blake Shapen, who battled inconsistency much of last season, but was named the team’s starter.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Baylor Bears
Over 7.5 ( +158 )
Under 7.5 ( -177 )
It’s been a weird career progression for Aranda with more than half of his 20 victories coming during the glorious 2021 season. Several players remain from that record-setting group, including Shapen, who was a backup that year. If you’re into numerology and all that mumbo-jumbo betting the OVER is the play. But as we know more goes into handicapping teams and basing results on past experiences isn’t the best betting strategy.
Roster
A three-year member of the program and last season’s starter, Shapen found himself in a battle with Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson during the spring. Filling in for Gerry Bohanon in 2021, Shapen led the Bears to the Big 12 title completing 23 of 28 for 180 yards and three TDs in a win over Oklahoma State. Huge things were expected from him as the starter in 2022 and there was mild disappointment in his play. Shapen finished the year completing 63.3 percent of his throws for 2,790 yards and 18 TDs. He did throw 10 picks after not being intercepted in 86 attempts the previous year.
So it goes without saying the Bears need better play from the position to return to their lofty heights. It wasn’t all Shapen’s fault, though. The run game sputtered finishing sixth in the league with an average of 182.4 yards, one year after leading the Big 12 with nearly 220 yards per game. With more responsibility heaped on him, Shapen struggled at times prompting the Bears to visit the portal for Robertson. A high school phenom in Lubbock, Robertson saw limited reps during his time at MSU.
The ground game should improve with the addition of OSU transfer Dominic Richardson to go along with freshman All-American Richard Reese. Richardson led the Cowboys in 2022 with 543 yards and eight TD while Reese set a freshman school record with 972 yards and 14 TDs. An offensive line with four new starters is a work in progress.
Fixes on defense are required after the unit slipped in nearly every major statistical category a season ago. The regression prompted the hiring of Matt Powledge, who was a Baylor assistant before spending last year as co-coordinator at Oregon. Known for its offensive fireworks, the Big 12 can be a nightmare for defensive coaches. Baylor allowed 371 yards and 26.8 points per game.
Powledge wants his group to show controlled aggression and “get up in people’s faces and really challenge them at the line of scrimmage.” A number of players are back on the defensive side of the ball with Matt Jones and Garmon Randolph playmakers anchoring the second level.
Schedule
Four home games in a row to start the season and eight games in Waco overall is a boost for a club looking to get back to the top of the conference. Two of those first four are whoppers, though, against defending Pac-12 champ Utah and Big 12 favorite Texas. They also have matchups with three of the four newcomers that should help the bottom line. And there is no Oklahoma on the slate.
Prediction
There definitely are some concerns on the offensive line and in the secondary, but what team doesn’t have issues entering the season? Facing competition should enable Shapen to be a better player and the run game appears to be in good hands with a pair of devastating backs helping the offense gain traction. More possessions and points takes a load off the defense, which should be improved if the transfers deliver. A favorable schedule has me leaning toward the OVER on this bet.
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