The Big 12 as we knew it has changed and it will undergo further adjustments next year. With Texas and Oklahoma set to depart for the SEC following this season both programs are expected to go out with a bang as the favorites to win the conference championship in 2023. Meanwhile the four newcomers to the conference – Cincinnati, UCF, BYU and Houston – are all positioned at the bottom of the odds board. The Longhorns haven’t quite lived up to their preseason hype over the last several years, but from a talent standpoint they appear to be best among the 14-team Big 12 Conference. And it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Red River rivals meet in the title game in December.
College Football Futures Odds
2023 Big 12 Championship Odds
Texas +100
Oklahoma +325
Kansas State +600
Texas Tech +1000
TCU +1100
Baylor +2000
Iowa State +4000
Kansas +4000
Oklahoma State +4000
West Virginia +4000
Cincinnati +5000
UCF +5000
BYU +8000
Houston +10000
If there are no changes to membership before the start of the 2024 season the Big 12 will finally live up to its name. When conference realignment became a thing around 2010 the league was impacted and played with 10 members for several years. With the announced departure of Texas and OU, the league backfilled with four new members making the 2023 campaign a fight among 14 schools. And though there are two clear-cut favorites the middle of the conference looks strong with several teams having the ability to knock off one of the top dogs any week.
It’s hard to believe the Longhorns haven’t won a Big 12 title since 2009, but they are in a good position to end that drought. The expectations in Austin are always high at the start of a season and maybe this time the Horns manage the hype. They bring back an experienced Quinn Ewers to run the offense, but Steve Sarkisian is hoping for better play from his QB. Ewers completed less than 60 percent of his passes with 15 TDs and six interceptions. Bijan Robinson will be missed in the run game but with all five starters on the line back one of the several contenders will step up. The defense slashed its points per game allowed by nearly 10 from 2021 and should be among the best in the conference.
The 2022 records of OU and USC showed us just how good a coach Lincoln Riley is. Without him the Sooners had their first losing season in over two decades while the Trojans returned to respectability. There was some tough luck involved in OU’s ledger, though, losing all five one-score games. OU had issues stopping the run allowing a bunch of yards that played a major role in their 6-7 mark. Another year for Brent Venables and staff along with some fixes in the portal will help get the program back to a winning mark, but I’m not sure the Sooners have enough.
TCU came out of nowhere making a run to the CFP championship game; however doing that again following the loss of key performers is going to be difficult. He wasn’t even the starter at the beginning of last season but Max Duggan became a Heisman finalist. Sonny Dykes is hoping for the same effort from Chandler Morris. The Frogs lost too much talent at one time to make a serious run at the title.
It’s easy to forget that K-State won the Big 12 last year knocking off TCU in overtime in the title game. And there are plenty of reasons to believe a return trip is possible. Defensively the club must replace some starters but Will Howard had a strong campaign and should be better as the opening week starter.
Longshot potential also belongs to Texas Tech, Baylor and Kansas showing just how tough the conference is. The Red Raiders closed 2022 with four straight wins with an impressive offensive outburst led by Tyler Shough. There are concerns along the line and on defense with improvement in those areas leading to a possible breakthrough. KU rose from the depths to go 6-7 last year and returns a number of starters, including dynamic QB Jalon Daniels, who threw 18 TD passes and rushed for seven more. The Jayhawks ranked among the top 25 nationally in scoring.
The four newcomers enter with question marks leaving them on the outside. BYU is the big name of the bunch but a tough schedule makes bowl eligibility a challenge. Guz Malzahn is back in a Power 5 with his UCF Knights the most prominent of the bunch.
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