When it comes to the Big Ten Conference there’s the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines followed by everyone else. Over the last several years the regular season-ending matchup between the rivals was the de facto Big Ten Championship with the winner going on to claim the conference crown. The last two years it was Michigan getting the better of the deal earning a spot in the CFP both times. And despite the return of several starters from a team that went undefeated in the regular season, The Wolverines opened slightly behind Ohio State on the 2023 Big Ten Championship odds board.
College Football Futures Odds
2023 Big Ten Championship Odds
Ohio State +160
Michigan +180
Penn State +550
Wisconsin +700
Iowa +1100
Minnesota +2800
Maryland +4000
Illinois +5000
Nebraska +5000
Michigan State +7500
Indiana +10000
Northwestern +10000
Purdue +10000
Rutgers +10000
Penn State lost just twice last season by a combined 37 points to Ohio State and Michigan. Of their 11 wins 10 of them were by double digits, including a 35-21 decision over Utah in the Rose Bowl. So there is a divide between the top two and Penn State with another gap between PSU and the rest of the Big Ten. Every now and then one team has a monstrous season to win the league, but for the most part it’s Michigan and Ohio State. And oddsmakers have it pegged that way for the 2023 season.
I was kind of surprised to see OSU as the betting favorite in the early market and that could change before the season opens. Still, it appears as though Michigan has the upperhand with significant personnel returning after going 13-0 during the 2022 regular season with a 43-22 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. J.J. McCarthy directed an impressive offense that ranked sixth nationally in scoring throwing for 2,719 yards with 22 TDs and only five interceptions. The unit also got a boost with the return of Blake Corum, who scampered for 1,463 yards and 18 scores. An injury that kept him out of the CFP semifinal loss to TCU was a blow only making him more motivated.
Without C.J. Stroud behind center the Buckeyes’ offense could take a step back. It would have been difficult for them to maintain the lofty heights of last season when they averaged 44.2 points, the second-best in the country. Kyle McCord gets a crack at taking over the starting job after completing 16 of 20 passes for 190 yards and one TD in minimal duty last season. The Buckeyes have arguably the best skill players in the Big Ten with Marvin Harrison Jr. catching passes and TreVeyon Henderson running the ball. And there are few weaknesses on defense giving the offense time to break in a new QB.
The top three teams all play in the East Division giving added importance to those matchups. And if Penn State is going to break the cycle the Nittany Lions will have to beat at least one and probably both to win that side. Drew Allar takes the reins from Sean Clifford at QB and is considered a superior passer to aid the aerial attack. The ground game is strong with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton back after combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 TDs.
After the top three the conference takes a dip with just about every program having some issues to deal with; most notably the fallout at Northwestern with a new coach so close to the start of the season. Michigan State saw starting QB Payton Thorne and receiver Keon Coleman transfer and Maryland has too many holes on defense.
The best longshot pick comes from the much weaker West Division with the Wisconsin Badgers starting over with new coach Luke Fickell, who famously took Cincinnati to the CFP a few years ago. With eight starters back from a legit defense, Bucky could give teams fits. And the Badgers have the schedule on their side with Iowa and Ohio State coming to Madison while Michigan and Penn State are avoided.
Iowa is always a threat and with an improved offense the Hawkeyes could do damage. They averaged only 17.7 points in 2022 prompting the arrival of QB Cade McNamara, who lost the starting gig at Michigan.
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