The Florida Gators haven’t strung together three consecutive losing seasons since the mid-1950s and another disappointing campaign can put them in the program’s history books. The team made a good hire in nabbing Billy Napier from Louisiana ahead of the 2022 campaign and the coach’s ability to get the most out of his team will be key to a quick rebuild in Gainesville. Former Wisconsin starter Graham Mertz takes over for first-round NFL draft pick Anthony Richardson as the team’s starting QB, but the biggest key to any success the team might enjoy rests on the defensive side of the football on a group that ranked near the bottom of the SEC.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Florida Gators
Over 5.5 ( -127 )
Under 5.5 ( +111 )
The Napier era got off to a great start with a win over eventual Pac-12 champ Utah in the 2022 opener. Inconsistent play from a relatively young and inexperienced group prevented the Gators from a winning season, though, and depth issues were a problem late in the season with losses to Vanderbilt, Florida State and Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl closing the year on a sour note. Despite the ending the journey showed positive signs that Napier has the program headed in the right direction.
Roster
Personnel changes every year, and this season is no different in that regard. In fact the Gators have undergone a huge transformation with several new coaches hired to the staff, a number of potential quick fixes added via the portal and a talented recruiting class. Putting it all together is what Napier gets paid the big bucks for and his history shows he can do it with a 33-5 record in his final three seasons with the Ragin’ Cajuns.
The biggest need is at quarterback with Anthony Richardson off to the NFL. There is no player with Richardson’s upside on the roster, but Mertz has experience as a starter in a Power 5 conference with Wisconsin. However, Mertz had his share of problems completing less than 60 percent of his throws with 26 interceptions during his Badgers career. Both Mertz and Jack Miller can chuck the football around the yard with improvement in the passing game a big help for more points. The Gators averaged 223.8 passing yards last season with their 18 TDs tied for the third-fewest in the SEC.
The ground game will need to be special with no help from the mobility-challenged QBs. That shouldn’t be an issue with last year’s leading rushers Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne back in the mix. The two combined for 1,560 yards and more than 5.7 yards per rush attempt while scoring 16 times. The offensive line got an overhaul and could be better than last year’s group that featured second-round NFL draft pick O’Cyrus Torrence.
The defensive decline in 2022 cost coordinator Patrick Toney his job leaving Austin Armstrong to recapture some of the old glory. The biggest concern last year was getting off the field. The Gators were last in the SEC in third-down defense allowing opponents to convert nearly half of their third down opportunities. A worn out group defended more than 900 plays allowing nearly 6.0 yards per play and an average of 411 yards.
Napier and staff hit the portal hard on this side of the football with seven newcomers expected to see significant snaps. Kelby Collins, a top 50 recruit, headlines the 2023 class that also included six defensive backs.
Schedule
This isn’t the optimal schedule for team looking to avoid three straight losing seasons for the first time since the 1950s. The Gators are in the weaker SEC East but they do have their annual tussle with Georgia as well as a matchup at LSU. They also have non-conference tilts at Utah to open the season and at home against Florida State.
Prediction
The overall talent and depth has improved from last season and the Gators will be situated better to avoid another late season collapse. The schedule, though, isn’t easy with an improved group of teams in the division and two difficult non-conference games. How Mertz handles the QB1 role will determine if the offense is good enough to offset what could be another shakey defensive unit. My gut tells me the Gators can win at least six games if things go according to plan.
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