Prior to last season’s breakout campaign the Illinois Fighting Illini hadn’t won more than six games in over a decade. You could say their 8-win season came out of nowhere since that’s more victories than the previous two seasons combined. Oddsmakers are skeptical and not overly excited about the Illini’s prospects of continuing their upward trajectory under Brett Bielema positioning them with a 2023 win total of 6.5. Winning a lot of games hasn’t been a thing at Illinois with their last back-to-back winning campaigns in 2010-2011, with bowl wins each season getting them to seven victories. So, you can see why the win total is set where it is.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Illinois Fighting Illini
Over 6.5 ( +104 )
Under 6.5 ( -120 )
Bret Bielema has won plenty of games during his career with a majority of those in the Big Ten. You might recall some of his best work took place at Wisconsin with at least 10 wins in four of his seven seasons while never having a losing record. That winning culture was evident last season with the Illini posting their most victories since winning nine games in 2007. Following up hasn’t been easy, though, with the Illini going 5-7 the season after winning nine times.
Roster
For the first time since Ron Turner surprised everyone leading the Illini to a 10-2 record in 2001, there is hope and optimism surrounding the program. The hope is that Bielema can continue to work his magic. The optimism surrounds a roster that underwent plenty of turnover from last season.
Partly by design and partly because they had to, the Illini were a running machine in 2022. Behind Chase Brown they ran the ball an average of 42 times a game for 166.1 yards. Brown was the workhorse with 328 attempts and 1,643 yards with 10 TDs. The rest of the team totaled 549 yards. With an enormous void in the backfield due to the departure of Brown and Tommy DeVito, the offense could take a different approach in 2023. Josh McCray and Reggie Love III will get a crack at running the ball after having a few opportunities last season.
For the third straight season there will be a new starting quarterback. The portal brought in reliable veteran DeVito last year and Bielema dipped in again to snag Ole Miss top recruit Luke Altmyer. The potential for a better passing game is there with Altmyer, who threw for 125 yards and two TDs in limited snaps last year. It also takes pass catchers to make the aerial game thrive and the Illini have a deep but unproven group led by Isaiah Williams, who had a team-best 82 receptions in 2022. Four of the top five wide receivers from last season are back giving Altmyer plenty of options.
The group has potential to be much better than the 378.1 yards and 24.2 points per game it put up last season. It all depends on whether or not Bielema wants to deviate from the run first approach that brought him so much success over the years.
A ton of points weren’t needed thanks to a defense that led the FBS allowing an average of 12.8 points. Success brings its share of problems, though, with coordinator Ryan Walters the new coach at Purdue. Looking to keep continuity, Bielema stayed in-house elevating secondary coach Aaron Henry. The good news is that several key performers return, including linemen Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. Both considered entering the NFL draft but decided to return for a final season. Bielema is high on his linebackers saying the group is one of the best he’s worked with during his career.
Schedule
Avoiding the top two teams in the conference makes the schedule favorable. Illinois doesn’t have to worry about CFP participants Michigan and Ohio State and gets Penn State and Wisconsin, the two biggest tests, at home. Kansas is improved but the remainder of the non-conference slate boasts Toledo and FAU. The West Division is up for grabs and the Illini travel to Iowa, Minnesota and Maryland, which is no easy task.
Prediction
A more productive offense to offset some likely regression on defense, and a more than favorable schedule has me backing the OVER. If Altmyer can handle the offense and deliver the occasional big play, and the defense performs anywhere close to the 2022 version, we could see Illinois contend for its first Big Ten West title.
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