They’re not flashy and a lot of times they’re downright boring and difficult to watch, but the Iowa Hawkeyes have won a lot of games over the years. Getting eight victories last season marked the seventh time in as many full seasons that the program reached that number with an average win total of more than nine wins in those seasons. And in order to cash the OVER on the 2023 win total, the Hawkeyes will have to hit that number with the projected total on the board at 8.5. An improved offense will certainly help to reach that number and the second-lowest scoring team in the FBS last season has former Michigan starter Cade McNamara as the starting QB.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Iowa Hawkeyes
Over 8.5 ( +127 )
Under 8.5 ( -143 )
If you want a history lesson on how the Big Ten played football years ago, the Hawkeyes are it. Heck, they’d make Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler proud. Run the ball, run it some more, and play strong defense. It’s a style that has provided a good amount of wins over the years and I’m not sure Kirk Ferentz and his staff will, or even knows how, to adjust. Despite gaining the fewest yards and scoring the fewest points in the Big Ten last year, Iowa still won eight games.
Roster
Change isn’t something that the good folk in Iowa City embrace. The Hawkeyes have had just two head coaches over the last 44 years so as long as you win more games than you lose and get to a bowl I guess you’re safe. To get to the next level, though, there will need to be significant improvement on offense, which will require the team to implement a thing called the forward pass. And that starts with a quarterback who can throw the football.
Iowa landed former Michigan starter Cade McNamara in the portal with hopes of jumpstarting an offense that ranked 123rd out of 131 FBS programs in scoring (17.7 ppg) and passing (156.7 ypg) last year. Iowa QBs combined to throw only seven touchdown passes, which was one fewer than Air Force even though they had 262 more pass attempts.
As good as Iowa is defensively, the Hawkeyes don’t need a gunslinger at QB. They need someone to manage the game and limit turnovers while scoring once in a while. McNamara knows the Big Ten with his stay at Michigan and was the team’s starter in 2021 throwing for 2,576 yards and 15 TDs while completing 64.2 percent of his 327 attempts.
It’s not like the Hawkeyes are completely void of talent. The tight end factory has two more potential NFLers in Luke Lachey, who caught four of the seven TD passes in 2022. Erick All arrives from Michigan to hook up with former UM teammate McNamara. All had a big year in 2021 with 38 catches, 437 yards and two TDs. With opposing defenses facing a threat of a downfield passing attack, Kaleb Johnson should have more room to operate. The team’s leading rusher compiled 779 yards and six TDs a season ago.
I’m not sure the Hawkeyes can be as good defensively as they were last season when they ranked second nationally allowing an average of only 270.8 yards and 13.3 points. There were some significant losses in Jack Campbell and Riley Moss, but the returning group is just as nasty and talented. Led by Cooper DeJean, who returned three of his five interceptions for a touchdown last year, the secondary is in good hands. The line returns three veteran starters who can get after the QB while stuffing the run. And Virginia transfer Jay Higgins steps in for Campbell to continue the team’s steady stream of quality linebackers.
Schedule
Iowa won seven regular season games in 2022 without an offense and with Ohio State and Michigan on the slate. There are no Wolverines or Buckeyes to contend with this year and matchups with Penn State and Wisconsin, both on the road, looking like the biggest tests. Two other big games take place at home against Michigan State and Minnesota.
Prediction
The juice makes the UNDER the favored selection here and I can’t disagree with oddsmakers. The arrival of McNamara should inspire the offense, but that’s not asking much since it was one of if not the worst group in program history last year. It’s also hard to expect another outstanding season from the defense, though the group will be solid. I see eight wins as the ceiling.
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