The first year of the Mario Cristobal era didn’t go according to plan for the Miami Hurricanes, who went 5-7 matching the 2007 team for the fewest wins since the turn of the century. The Canes aren’t going to suddenly become a powerhouse and challenge Clemson and FSU at the top of the ACC. What they can do with the talent assembled is post a winning record and return to a bowl game for the first time in three years. Miami did accept a bid to the 2021 Sun Bowl after going 7-5, but later withdrew due to COVID issues. For a team that’s won more than seven regular season games just once in the previous five years, oddsmakers are generous setting the projected total at 7.5.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Miami Hurricanes
Over 7.5 ( +132 )
Under 7.5 ( -151 )
There’s been a carousel of full-time and interim head coaches through the halls of Miami’s football offices with Cristobal the eighth since 2010. This hire is different, though, in that Cristobal is a former Canes player and well-regarded as a recruiter. We may never get back to the days of ‘The U’ when the program won national championships and churned out NFL talent. There’s a good chance the Canes become a threat in the ACC in the very near future.
Roster
Part of the reason for Miami’s struggles last year was the number of injuries with some of them to key personnel. The team’s lack of depth couldn’t cover and the result was five wins. One of those victories was over a FBS club and another against a G5 opponent. The other three wins were against Virginia, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, who combined to go 11-22 last season.
In an effort to solve the depth problem, Cristobal and his staff recruited a top class and hit the portal hard. They also expect some of their injured players to return healthy. The main figure is QB Tyler Van Dyke, who should rebound with new coordinator Shannon Dawson at the helm. The offense never got going finishing ninth in the ACC with an average of 367.4 yards and ninth with 23.6 points. Hampered by a shoulder injury, Van Dyke never displayed the skill that he flashed in 2021 earning ACC rookie of the year honors. That year he threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 26 TDs.
A healthy Van Dyke immediately makes the offense better and an improved line will help increase production. The return of stud tackle Zion Nelson, and the addition of two starters from the portal makes the line one of the best in the ACC if not the entire FBS. The group will aid a ground game that lacked pop and big-play ability a season ago. Leading rusher Henry Parrish dealt with injuries but still compiled 604 yards and four TDs. Cristobal is also high on star recruit Mark Fletcher.
The Canes didn’t get a lot of production from their receivers last season, but that should change under the new system. Colbie Young is a potential breakout candidate after 32 receptions, 367 yards and a team-best five TD grabs a season ago. Better talent and better health will make this unit much improved.
There are some solid defenders on the roster, however just not enough proven ones to make a significant difference. All-American safety Kamren Kinchens anchors the unit. His six interceptions last year were the second-most in the FBS. James Williams and Leonard Taylor III are former five-star recruits. They were in the middle of the pack nationally allowing 376.6 yards and 26.8 points and I’m not convinced they’ve gotten much better.
Schedule
For a rebuilding squad this isn’t an ideal schedule. The top five teams on the ACC futures board are all on the slate with games at UNC, NC State and Florida State. There’s also a non-conference matchup with SEC’s Texas AM. The Canes can’t afford a slip up against a G5 club like last year’s fiasco against MTSU.
Prediction
It’s likely going to take at least one more season for all the pieces to fall into place. A healthy Van Dyke will help transform the offense, but much is needed on the other side of the football to go right. Guidry did fantastic job with Marshall’s defense last year and you could say he’s got more talent to work with. But plugging the holes isn’t going to be easy and a number of tough ACC games has me leaning toward the UNDER.
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