Only once in the entire history of the program has the North Carolina State Wolfpack hit double figures in wins. Under current coach Dave Doeren they’ve been close winning nine games three times and eight games on three other occasions, including last year when the Pack went 8-4 during the regular season. In fact, NC State has won at least eight regular season games in each of the past three campaigns, which would put them over their projected win total. The Pack will move on from Devin Leary after he transferred bringing in former UVA QB Brennan Armstrong to direct the offense.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the North Carolina State Wolfpack
Over 7 ( +102 )
Under 7 ( -118 )
It’s hard to consistently win in college football, but NC State has done that under Doeren posting winning records in eight of his last nine seasons. The Pack has also won at least eight regular season games in five of the last six years so it appears as though the 2023 win total of seven is certainly within reach. Oddsmakers adjusted the total from 2022 when the Pack fell just short of cashing the OVER at 8.5 by finishing the year at 8-5.
Roster
An injury to Leary had a serious impact on the Pack’s offense. They finished 2022 ranked 11th in the ACC in total offense with 339.8 yards per game and ninth in scoring with an average of 24.3 points. The team had an elite defense so it’s easy to see where the problems rested.
Doeren addressed the offensive issues by raiding ACC counterpart Virginia for signal-caller Brennan Armstrong and reuniting him with offensive coordinator Robert Anae. The two were together at UVA in 2021 when the team put up ridiculous numbers.
Armstrong threw for nearly 4,500 yards with 31 touchdowns and the Cavs averaged 392.6 passing yards and 515.9 total yards while finishing 21st nationally in scoring. Anae left for Syracuse last season and Armstrong struggled. If the two can recreate the magic they had in 2021 NC State could be a sleeper with their defense.
It will take more than just Armstrong being reunited with his former OC to make the offense go. And there are holes that need to be filled. Three of the team’s top four receivers are gone leaving Keyon Lesane as the top option. Lesane had 31 receptions and a pair of TD grabs in 2022. The Pack struggled running the ball last season averaging just 113.8 yards, but leading rusher Jordan Houston is back. Houston rushed for 544 yards, but overall the ground game was stagnant averaging just 3.3 yards a carry with eight scores. The hope is that an experienced line with three returning starters can open holes, though depth is a problem.
The strength of the team last year was its defense and the group will be counted on to come up big again in 2023. The Pack allowed an average of 19.4 points and 326.9 total yards to finish among the top two in the ACC and top 20 nationally. They held Texas Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest and UNC to an average of less than 20 points while winning all four of those games.
The unit got a huge boost when Payton Wilson put his NFL plans on hold to return for another season. Wilson had 82 tackles, 12.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks along with an interception. He disrupted many offensive game plans with his freakish athleticism. With six starters back in the mix the defense is strong. However, the players lost were significant pieces and making up for that could take time and there’s not guarantee it even happens.
Schedule
Eight wins has been the norm in Raleigh in recent years and hitting that number again gets a win on the OVER. There are some winnable non-conference games with UConn and VMI sandwiched around a date with Notre Dame. The matchup with the Irish is at home as are all the bigger ACC matchups – Louisville, Clemson, Miami and UNC – but the Pack has to win them.
Prediction
One thing that’s affected NC State in the past is its inability to win games it probably should’ve won. We saw it last year with inexplicable setbacks to Syracuse, BC and Louisville. And depth has been a problem with Leary’s injury causing chaos last year. The team is deeper and just a bit more offense gets them over the hump. Eight wins is doable with a schedule that has the bigger opponents at home.
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