There was a mixture of good and bad with the North Carolina Tar Heels from a season ago. The club won nine games, the second-most in a single season since Mack Brown was in his first stint with the program in 1997. And they did that in their first 10 games of the year before ending the campaign with four consecutive losses. The Heels won the ACC Coastal falling to Clemson in the championship game and dropping their bowl game to Oregon. Drake Maye is back to lead a dynamic offense, but the Heels need to be better on the other side of the football in order to cash the OVER on their projected win total of 8.5.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the North Carolina Tar Heels
Over 8.5 ( +140 )
Under 8.5 ( -156 )
Late season collapses have prevented UNC from joining college football’s elite and none were more painful than last year’s. They went into a funk on offense and the guys on the other side of the football continued to have problems. Still, nine regular season wins gave the Heels one of the best seasons in the last four decades of competition while averaging 7.5 wins in four years of Brown’s second stint with the program.
Roster
During their first 10 games of 2022 the Heels scored at least 27 points in every one while averaging over 40 points. They won nine of those contests despite a defense that had all kinds of issues. Like they say, winning is a great deodorant. When the offense stumbled down the stretch topping out at 27 points while averaging nearly 20 points per game less over the final four contests, it wasn’t surprising to see the team go 0-4.
In an effort to avoid another late season swoon, Brown hit the portal hard and recruited one of the top classes of his second go-round. And the biggest move may have been one that didn’t happen. Many thought Maye would transfer with Alabama being the team of choice. However that never materialized and the gunslinger is back to direct an offense that ranked second in the ACC in total yards (462.8) and third in scoring (34.4) in 2022. Maye, the ACC Player of the Year, threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns while rushing for a team-high 698 yards and an additional seven scores.
The portal landed receivers Devontez Walker and Nate McCollum to fill the void created by the departure of last season’s leading pass catchers. The offensive line also got some help after Maye was harassed too often in the backfield. Getting more production from the running backs will alleviate some pressure. British Brooks should give the group a boost after missing the 2022 campaign due to injury. Brooks averaged 9.5 yards per carry with four TDs in 2021. Elijah Green finished second to Maye with 558 rushing yards adding eight TDs.
The group has to mesh with new coordinator Philip Lindsey, who plans to keep the passing game intact while creating a more physical running game. An experienced line will help with the goal of avoiding a power outage late in the season.
Winning nine games with a defense that was horrendous shows us just how good Maye and the offense were in 2022. With some help from the stop group this club could take big strides. UNC can’t be much worse finishing last in the ACC in yards and points allowed. The Heels couldn’t get to the quarterback totaling just 17 sacks and as a result had the worst pass defense in the ACC. Any improvement could result in a few extra wins.
Schedule
I think a lot has to go right for the Heels to get nine wins and the OVER on the total. The schedule lines up well without Florida State and Notre Dame, but there are some 50/50 games in the first month that will determine the trajectory of the club. After their opener with South Carolina in Charlotte, the Heels play five of their next six at home. The closing stretch is tough with games at Clemson and NC State to finish the regular season.
Prediction
Better line play on both side of the football will determine how the Heels do in 2023. The potential for big things is there with Maye running the offense, and as long as they don’t suck as bad as they did last year on defense they could sneak a few more wins. But, that’s a big ask especially in the rugged ACC. Brown made some major changes, especially on defense, and if the group is slightly better so is UNC’s record.
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