Maybe Lincoln Riley read the tea leaves leaving Norman just before the Oklahoma Sooners posted their first losing season since John Blake was running the outfit in 1998. There was some bad luck in the first year of the Brent Venables era with injuries and the inability to win close games leading to a 6-7 record. Oddsmakers, and I’m sure fans of the program, expect a quick turnaround with the Sooners’ win total at 9.5. Prior to last season OU eclipsed that number in six of the previous seven years. The 2022 season could have turned out much different if OU was able to finish. Five of their losses were by seven points or less with four of them by a field goal. Another season with Venables at the helm and Dillon Gabriel running the offense, coupled with transfer upgrades on defense should have the Sooners back in the mix for a Big 12 title.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Oklahoma Sooners
Over 9.5 ( -112 )
Under 9.5 ( -104 )
This is an important season for Venables and the Sooners with their impending move to the SEC in 2024. Bouncing back from a losing campaign is almost a must considering what OU has to deal with next season. Not that the Big 12 is awful, which it isn’t based on last year’s results. But OU is expected to be contending for conference crowns and getting back to that will help in the transition to new conference.
Roster
The Sooners were off just slightly last year undergoing a coaching and personnel makeover after the departure of Riley and Caleb Williams. They also saw once promising Spencer Rattler transfer after losing the QB1 role. With the position in limbo the team snared UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel to lead the offense. And while it wasn’t your typical OU video game performance, the group wasn’t bad. The Sooners topped the Big 12 averaging 474 yards and actually amassed more yards than the 2021 team.
The problem last year was finishing drives. All those yards should have resulted in more than their 32.8 point per game average that placed them fifth in the conference. Gabriel had a strong season with better things on the horizon with a year in the system. He threw for 3,168 yards completing 62.7 percent of his throws with 25 touchdowns and only six interceptions. I wouldn’t be surprised if Venables decides at some point to give highly-touted Jackson Arnold a shot. One of the top dual-threat recruits in the country, Arnold is the future of the position.
The skill positions took a hit to graduation, transfers and dismissals with new playmakers needed throughout. The ground game was strong last year with Eric Gray rushing for nearly 1,400 yards. Jovantae Barnes showed promise in a limited role and will get a chance to shoulder more of the load. The team also lost leading receiver Marvin Mims leaving Jalil Farooq as the No. 1 option. The rest of the group is young and inexperienced, but promising.
Gabriel has to increase production from his group or the defense has to be a lot better. Venables is a former defensive coordinator and he watched that side of the ball crumble last season ahead of only Kansas in yards allowed while ranking 99th nationally allowing 30 points per game. The group surrendered more than 40 points in a game five times, including a 49-0 ass kicking by Texas in the Red River Rivalry game. “We got bullied around and beat up too much,” Venables said.
Schedule
A look at the schedule and you can see why the win total is set at 9.5. The slate is more forgiving than last year, but OU still needs to take advantage. Tulsa is no gimme and neither is SMU, but those are contests the Sooners should expect to win. Matchups with Cincinnati and Iowa State to open Big 12 play could see OU at 5-0 heading into the Texas game with revenge on their mind. And there is no Kansas State, Baylor or Texas Tech on the docket.
Prediction
The honeymoon phase for Venables was over around the midway point last season. And with that awful year behind them the Sooners should be able to win a few more games based on the schedule. How much they improve depends on how well the defense reacts to a new scheme and several new players. The secondary was reworked and the front seven need to pressure the QB more than they did last year. Even if everything goes well I think the total is too high so I’m leaning toward backing the UNDER.
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