If the Penn State Nittany Lions weren’t in the same division as two other college football heavyweights, they would get more recognition as being an elite program. For the fourth time in seven years the Nittany Lions won 11 games and both setbacks last year were to the teams ahead of them in the Big Ten East. There’s no shame in losing to Michigan and Ohio State, but PSU will look to bridge the gap after dropping last year’s games by a combined 37 points. The Nittany Lions enjoyed a lot of success thanks to a productive offense led by Sean Clifford. With the former starter out of the picture there is some concern with Drew Allar the projected next man up. A former five-star recruit, Allar has the tools but has played just 10 games ahead of 2023.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Penn State Nittany Lions
Over 9.5 ( -143 )
Under 9.5 ( +127 )
James Franklin has to be one of the most underrated coaches in the business. Not only did he guide Penn State out of a turbulent time, he’s been highly successful boasting a winning record in eight of his nine seasons. The team went 4-5 in the shortened 2020 COVID season. Cashing the OVER on this futures bet likely requires Penn State to beat either Ohio State or Michigan. The Nittany Lions dropped their last six with the Buckeyes and have lost two in a row to the Wolverines. Win them both, though, and there’s a good chance they reach the CFP.
Roster
Playing the red-headed step child to UM and Ohio State has prevented Penn State from achieving better things over the last several seasons. However, it hasn’t stopped them from competing and winning football games. Excluding the 2020 COVID season, the Nittany Lions averaged 10 wins since the start of the 2016 campaign. They’ll need to reach that number in 2023 to hit the OVER on their projected total. And that won’t be easy with an unsettled quarterback situation.
For the first time in four years the squad doesn’t have the previous year’s starter returning. I guess you have to start somewhere and Allar got limited playing time in 2022 going 35 of 60 for 344 yards and four touchdowns in mop up duty. The hope is that Allar can elevate the passing game that finished 46th in the nation in yards per game last season. “Having a difference-maker at the quarterback position, sometimes that’s enough to get you into that championship game or the playoffs,” Franklin noted.
There are a lot of weapons to choose from on offense so this could be one of the most explosive Penn State teams we’ve seen in years. A five-star recruit, Allar fits the mold of a NFL passer with size, mobility and a strong arm. The receiver group took a hit with the top three pass catchers from a season ago gone. Keandre Lambert-Smith is the top returner after making 24 catches last year. Four of those were for scores along with an average of over 16 yards.
Until the passing game gets situated Franklin can rely on two of the top backs in the Big Ten to keep the offense humming. As true freshmen in 2022 Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined to rush for nearly 2,000 yards with 22 touchdowns. And they’ll have an experienced line in front of them to churn out the yards.
A number of starters are back for a defense that ranked 17th nationally in yards allowed and ninth in points per game allowed. The secondary was depleted with two starters drafted to the NFL and the line is inexperienced and undersized. And the group has to perform against the big boys. PSU surrendered 17 points or less in nine games, but allowed more than 40 in losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
Schedule
For team with Big Ten title hopes getting through the conference, with the exception of the Michigan and OSU games, shouldn’t be a problem. Another benefit is they don’t have Wisconsin, Minnesota and Purdue, the perceived top teams in the West, on the slate. And games with Michigan and Iowa are in Happy Valley.
Prediction
This might be the best team Franklin has had during his tenure and winning 10 games and the division is something the Nittany Lions have a realistic shot at. Should Allar live up to the hype the offense will be special and there are enough leftovers on the other side to be dangerous. Splitting games with UM and OSU gets them there, as long as they don’t lay an egg against Iowa or Illinois.
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