The top two teams on college football’s national championship futures board reside in the SEC and once again the conference title will run through Athens in a figurative sense. The two-time defending CFP Champion Georgia Bulldogs are a negative odds favorite to win the 2023 SEC football championship with Alabama close behind. Those two schools combined to win nine of the past 10 SEC titles. The gap on the odds board has closed slightly from previous years with LSU the third favorite. Tennessee looks to build on a breakout season from a year ago while we’re still waiting for Jimbo Fisher to do something with the Texas AM Aggies. Those squads had the fourth-best opening odds at +1400. After the top five the rest of the SEC has odds of 40/1 or higher. While the payout on those teams is nice there’s a reason for that; they just aren’t as good as Georgia, Alabama and LSU.
College Football Futures Odds
2023 SEC Championship Odds
Georgia -125
Alabama +275
LSU +450
Tennessee +1400
Texas A&M +1400
Mississippi +4000
Auburn +5000
Arkansas +8000
Florida +8000
Kentucky +8000
South Carolina +8000
Missouri +10000
Vanderbilt +10000
Mississippi State +12500
Their quest for a three-peat won’t be easy in what most consider the best football conference in the country. A testament to their recruiting ability is in the odds. With the loss of key personnel on both sides of the ball, the Bulldogs are still the team to beat. The best teams in the country don’t rebuild they reload. While they have to replace record-setting quarterback Stetson Bennett and first-round NFL draft pick Jalen Carter the pipeline is deep. But there are challenges. The Dawgs ranked fifth nationally in scoring last year but will likely have untested Carson Beck behind center to start the year.
After missing out on the SEC Championship game last year and being denied a CFP berth, the Crimson Tide will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. There are more questions than usual surrounding Nick Saban’s group, though the Tide always seems to fill the voids. They didn’t falter when Tua Tagovailoa left leaving Mac Jones to keep the machine moving. And when Jones departed Bryce Young grabbed the baton winning a Heisman Trophy in the process. Once again Bama faces uncertainly at QB with Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner added to the battle.
A loss to LSU prevented the Tide from reaching the SEC title game and those two are again the best in the SEC West. Talent is never an issue for the program and with the matchup against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa Bama has a path to the conference championship.
There appears to be little separation between Bama and LSU with the odds reflective of that. Under Brian Kelly the Bayou Bengals won 10 games and beat Alabama to claim the West title. One thing they have in their favor is stability at QB with Jayden Daniels returning. In his first year with the program Daniels directed an offense that averaged nearly 35 points by throwing 17 scoring passes and rushing for 885 yards and an additional 11 scores. Heck he even had a TD catch. Another season in the program and with talented receivers, expect Daniels to be even better in 2023.
I think Tennessee is overvalued at its price but coming off an 11-win season that included wins over Alabama and LSU in consecutive weeks can do that. It’s hard to imagine the offense being as explosive without Hendon Hooker running the show and defensively there are still holes to fill. And Texas AM hasn’t seen results under Fisher leaving them out of the equation.
Ole Miss is a sleeper worth keeping an eye on. The Rebels fizzled down the stretch after starting 2022 with seven straight wins. Lane Kiffin brought in a bunch of transfers for immediate help and Jaxson Dart should be better running the offense after battling with several newcomers to retain the starting job.
Any longshot will likely come from the East with Georgia the only road block. Having to beat Bama, LSU and Texas AM in the West is a major challenge. South Carolina is making a move under Shane Beamer with wins over highly-ranked Clemson and Tennessee last year. Spencer Rattler is back for another campaign and special teams proved to be a big asset last year and should be again.
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