Prior to going 10-2 during the 2022 regular season and finishing off the campaign with an impressive Orange Bowl victory over Clemson for their first double-digit win season since 2007, the Tennessee Volunteers hadn’t won more than eight regular season games since Phillip Fulmer went 9-3 in 2007. Are the Vols back or was last season a one-off? Hard to say, but the program has progressed under Josh Heupel with back-to-back winning years for the first time since 2015-2016. Oddsmakers have a healthy view of the Vols with their win total set at 9. Remember they are playing in the rugged SEC with pitfalls every week.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Tennessee Volunteers
Over 9 ( -122 )
Under 9 ( +106 )
With wins over five ranked opponents, including SEC West heavyweights Alabama and LSU, and their only setback narrowly to Georgia, the Vols had a possible CFP berth hanging in the balance in their penultimate regular season game against South Carolina. And when I say this is the SEC this is what I mean. The Vols were routed, 63-38, by the Gamecocks. Still, with the program mired in mediocrity over the last several years, the Vols went 11-2 behind college football’s top offense.
Roster
During his coaching tenure Heupel has produced explosive offenses and worked with some talented QBs. From his days as an assistant at Oklahoma to head man at UCF and now in Knoxville. The Vols unearthed the potential of Hendon Hooker last season with his massive campaign helping them lead the country in total yards at 525.2 per game and scoring at 46.1 points a game. Responsible for maintaining the flow offensively is Joe Miton III, who gets first crack at the starting gig with new coordinator Joey Halzle.
There shouldn’t be much difference schematically with the offense. Halzle moves up from the team’s QB coach after having the most efficient passing game in college football last season. Milton has all the tools; he’s big and mobile with a cannon for an arm. However, he couldn’t get the offense to work at Michigan and was the projected starter last year before Hooker showed off. Milton gets one final crack and is hoping to make the most of it. Milton had a decent Orange Bowl outing going 19 of 28 for 251 yards and three TDs in the 31-14 win over Clemson.
The weapons are there as well for the offense to continue putting up big numbers. The Vols may not be the best in the FBS again, but they likely won’t be far off. Bru McCoy was second to NFL draft pick Jalin Hyatt in receptions (51) and receiving yards (667) a season ago presenting a top target. Ramel Keyton and Squirrel Jones can put up huge numbers. However, it’s not all about throwing the football. The Vols have a stable of experienced backs to hand the ball off to led by last year’s leading rushers Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. The two combined for over 1,600 yards and 23 touchdowns.
There were few clunkers, notably the loss to South Carolina and allowing 49 points to Alabama, but overall the defense showed improvement from 2021 to finish 36th nationally in points per game allowed. Pass defense was a concern in 2022 with opponents averaging nearly 290 yards a game. However that stat is a bit misleading since teams chucked it almost 41 times a game while trying to keep pace. There is size and also a lack of experience up front and the secondary lost a bunch of pieces. Transfers and new recruits will get a chance to shine.
Schedule
It’s hard to say a SEC schedule is favorable. In the case of the Vols it’s as close as you can get. Alabama will look to avenge its loss from a season ago and hosts Tennessee. The Vols also travel to Florida, Kentucky and Missouri. But that’s it for road games for the entire season. The opener against Virginia is in Nashville with everything else at home, including a date with defending champion Georgia on Nov. 18.
Prediction
You can bet on college football using crypto but Tennessee might be a team avoid. Sure the club appears to be rising to national prominence like they did back in the late 1990s, but there are questions surrounding the squad that have me wondering if double-digit wins can be achieved. The QB position is in flux and several key starters from 2022 were lost. The Vols will chew up lesser opponents but three losses in SEC play are possible.
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