Entering a season with lofty expectations is nothing new for the Texas Longhorns. Living up to the hype, though, has been a problem. As the Horns enter their final season in the Big 12, they are positioned as the betting favorite to win their first conference championship since 2009, but they’ve found ways to stumble in previous years. The team did improve in Steve Sarkisian’s second season winning eight regular season games in 2022 after a 5-7 mark the previous year. Texas should be good and Sarkisian has used the fertile recruiting ground in his home state to land top recruits. Now it’s about putting it together on the field.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the Texas Longhorns
Over 9.5 ( -139 )
Under 9.5 ( +123 )
The Horns haven’t won 10 regular season game since 2009 when they went 12-0. They’ll have to get 10 wins in 2023 in order to cash the OVER on their win total of 9.5. The Horns have the talent to reach 10 wins with better outcomes in close games a start. They were just 2-5 in one score games last year with a 20-19 loss to Alabama in Week 2 setting the tone. For the Horns another 8-5 season just isn’t good enough.
Roster
Texas was just a handful of plays away from being a 10-win club in 2022. There’s a fine line between winning and losing and the Horns straddled it. There are reasons why they came out on the short end in those games with a failure to finish being one of them. Depth was also a concern, especially at quarterback, with the team likely beating Bama if not for an injury to Quinn Ewers. The offense failed to score a touchdown in the second half of that loss.
The QB room this season is stacked with Ewers the likely starter. His experience in the system gives him an edge over Arch Manning and Maalik Murphy. But if Ewers falters Sarkisian won’t hesitate to make a switch. Ewers threw for 2,177 yards and 15 touchdowns, but needs to be more consistent. He completed only 58.1 percent of his passes and was intercepted six times. Whoever throws the ball has a rich group of pass catchers. Top receivers Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington are back along with all-conference TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
The Horns placed in the top 25 nationally in scoring thanks to huge outputs against weak defenses. They scored 52 against Louisiana-Monroe, 55 against Kansas and put up 49 in a blanking of OU. In three of their five setbacks they scored 20 or fewer points. Ewers has to be sharper not only to keep the starting job but to win games. There is no Bijan Robinson to carry the rock, but the rotation featuring jonathan Brooks, Jaydon Blue and Keilan Robinson should be good enough behind a line that returns all five starters.
One takeaway from the 2022 performance by the Horns’ defense was that they allowed fewer than five yards per play for the first time in nearly a decade. And while the group may not have the talent and upside that the fellas on the other side of the ball have, there is plenty of experience in the group that finished second in the Big 12 in scoring and total defense.
The unit held opponents to 21 points or less eight times in 2022 and they were great at pressuring the QB leading the country in that category. Burly linemen T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy return, the linebackers are solid, and the secondary has playmakers.
Schedule
The schedule presents a problem in the Horns’ quest to win 10 regular season games. There is that matchup in Tuscaloosa in Week 2 and teams expected to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 standings are off the slate. The Baylor game to open league play is huge. The Horns haven’t won in Waco since 2017. OU will seek revenge in the annual Red River Rivalry after UT’s 49-0 dismantling last year and home games against K-State and Texas Tech surround a road trip to TCU and Iowa State in the final month.
Prediction
Sports betting with bitcoin is available at BookMaker with the Texas win total just one college football wager. The Horns have let us down too many times and until they figure out how to overcome the hype they’ll be a good team. Unfortunately good teams don’t win 10 regular season games, great ones do. This is the best Texas team in a few years but an improved Big 12 and a matchup with Bama have me backing the UNDER.
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