The UCLA Bruins are coming off their best season under Chip Kelly going 9-4 with the most program wins in a decade. After a sputtering start to his tenure in Westwood, Kelly and the Bruins averaged 8.5 wins the last two seasons with that number the target point for their 2023 campaign. Winning nine games won’t be easy with the Bruins replacing a number of key starters on offense now that Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet are gone. One thing Kelly has been able to do in his career is recruit and mold players on offense, which is a must in 2023 if the Bruins are going to cash the OVER on their 8.5 win total at Crypto Sportsbooks.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the UCLA Bruins
Over 8.5 ( -122 )
Under 8.5 ( +107 )
The Bruins were a victory away from matching the program record last season and Kelly has the program moving in the right direction. They exceeded their win total and oddsmakers set the number the same at 8.5. There are some new faces in key positions on offense that need to come through, but the Bruins have a solid defense returning. Three losses in the final four games ruined what otherwise was a successful 2022, now avoiding those pitfalls could put the 2023 squad in the program record books.
Roster
For the first time in what seems like forever the Bruins will start a season without Thompson-Robinson behind center. For better or for worse DTR was the guy and last year we saw the better. The Bruins had the fourth-best offense in the FBS averaging 503.6 yards and were eighth averaging 39.2 points. They also possessed the best ground game in the Pac-12 and were among the top 10 nationally converting third downs. A new QB will direct the offense in 2023 looking to continue the strides made under DTR.
This has to be one of the most intriguing battles in all of college football. Four players in competition for the QB1 gig with Kelly revealing nothing about which guy is the likely successor to DTR. Ethan Garbers might have the inside track after spending the last two seasons as the main backup. In limited playing time Garbers completed nearly 65 percent of this passes for 599 yards and four TDs. Dante Moore seems like a better fit for Kelly’s offense, though, and the five-star recruit won’t be on the sidelines long. Kent State transfer Collin Schlee is the only one with extensive starting time under his belt.
Not only do they need a starting QB to emerge, the Bruins also have to replace Charbonnet and the top three pass catchers from a season ago. TJ Harden and Keegan Jones got enough carries between them to handle the load and Ball State transfer Carson Steele is the X-factor after rushing for over 1,500 yards and 14 TDs last season.
There is more clarity on the defensive side with eight starters back for new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The group settled into the middle of the Pac-12 ranking sixth in yards and seventh in points allowed. They were good at limiting big plays, though, as the only FBS squad to not allow a single play over 50 yards. From his hybrid linebacker spot Laiatu Latu collected 10.5 sacks and the Murphy twins are a force in the middle. While the group didn’t give up big plays it also didn’t make many of them. The Bruins yielded more than 32 points five times in their last seven games.
Schedule
There are no divisions in the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it so the Bruins catch a slight break with no Oregon and Washington on the slate, arguably two of the best in the league. Replace them with Oregon State and Washington State and the schedule looks a lot easier. Those teams should be good, but they aren’t OU and UDub. The non-conference portion isn’t a cakewalk with Coastal Carolina and trip south against San Diego State, but those are games the Bruins should win if they want to be taken seriously.
Prediction
There are so many moving parts with the Bruins entering the season it’s hard to make sense of them. The QB situation has to be resolved and there is talent at the position, so that’s not an issue. But rotating back and forth is something Kelly needs to avoid. The other skill positions are find and the line was helped through the portal. Overall this might be the best team Kelly has had and with a favorable schedule I can see them winning at least nine games for the OVER.
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