With reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams orchestrating a potent offense and some upgrades on defense through the transfer portal, the USC Trojans are a legitimate threat to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time. It’s hard to imagine a fabled program like Southern Cal’s not being a part of the national title picture in the decade since the CFP was instituted, but the hiring of Lincoln Riley ahead of last season elevated the program to 11 wins, the most for the Trojans since the latter stages of the Pete Carroll era. SC went over its win total last season and oddsmakers adjusted setting the 2023 number at 10, leaving little margin for error at Crypto Sportsbooks.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Regular Season Wins for the USC Trojans
Over 10 ( +100 )
Under 10 ( -115 )
The Trojans landed their guy last year enticing Riley to move to the West Coast. A look at his numbers tells you just how good he’s been. Taking over for Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, Riley led the Sooners to three consecutive 12-win seasons with four overall in five years. With no pressure taking over the USC program, Riley directed an 11-win campaign with only a loss to Utah in the Pac-12 championship preventing the Trojans from a seat at the CFP table. With a career winning percentage of 83.5, the only thing missing is a national title.
Roster
With Williams putting up crazy numbers, the USC offense was a juggernaut finishing third nationally in total yards (506.6 ypg) and scoring (41.3 ppg). And Williams is back to finish off what he started. The coach/QB combo has been together three seasons now starting with Williams’ rise at OU in 2021. He was impressive then and got better last season throwing for 4,537 yards and a FBS best 42 touchdowns. Only a handful of players threw more than the 500 passes Williams attempted and none threw fewer than his five interceptions. In all Williams set around a dozen program records.
A lot of things went right for the Trojans on offense. Not only were they top three in yards and scoring, they also committed the fewest turnovers and led the FBS with a plus-21 differential. They were excellent on third downs converting on nearly 54 percent of their chances to rank second nationally. You can’t rely on those numbers year to year so Williams and the offense need to be good. The group of receivers is deep with four of the top six in receptions back along with Arizona transfer Dorian Singer.
Ideally the Trojans would like to have more success running the football limiting the abuse inflicted on Williams. It isn’t easy with Williams making things happen with every snap. Williams ran for 382 yards and 10 scores but Austin Jones and transfer Mar’Shawn Lloyd from that other USC will be a prolific 1-2 punch. The club also gets three ready-made starters on the line in the portal to rebuild a unit that lost some punch.
Imagine if the Trojans had an above average defense last season. That’s hopefully the case for Alex Grinch and his troops in 2023. They were mediocre at best last year placing in the bottom 10 allowing 6.5 yards per play and were 94th in the FBS surrendering 29.2 points per game. USC was exceptional at getting to the QB and taking the ball away. Add stud transfers at every level, including DL Bear Alexander, LB Mason Cobb and S Christian Roland-Wallace and the defense can be a whole lot better.
Schedule
You can take the UNDER to the bank if the Trojans don’t sweep the first half of their schedule. Outside of a possible hiccup at Arizona State - and that’s a big hiccup - San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Colorado and Arizona are wins. The fun starts at Notre Dame on Oct. 14 with Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA following. There’s at least one loss lurking in there.
Prediction
An offense loaded with playmakers should again make up for any deficiencies. There is a strong chance the defense is a helluva lot better thanks to the portal and the Trojans have their sights set on bigger things. The key is keeping Williams healthy and if that’s the case I can see this squad running the table or at the very worst having one throw away game. Either way I’m all in on the Trojans going OVER their win total.
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