Things have grown stale for the Auburn Tigers with the program logging just one double-digit winning campaign dating back to 2017. During this period, they have exceeded their season win total odds expectations set by online sportsbooks a grand total of two times. Hugh Freeze's arrival from a successful stint at Liberty was expected to bring change to the 2023-24 campaign, especially after a promising start with three consecutive victories logged in non-con play. However, their fortunes took a downturn once conference play commenced. Despite competitive losses to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama by one-score margins, Auburn suffered significant setbacks like a lopsided 48-18 defeat to LSU and shocking 31-10 home loss to New Mexico State, a game they went off the board heavily favored to win according to the closing College Football betting lines. These disappointments contributed to Auburn falling short of their season win total and conclude the season with a sub .500 record for the third straight time. Auburn demonstrated an ability to defeat lesser opponents but struggled against the top-tier teams. Despite this, oddsmakers remain optimistic for the upcoming season, raising their win total projection to 7.5-games after closing 6.5 the year prior. It appears the hard-fought defeats to the Dawgs, Crimson Tide, and Rebels have influenced a bullish stance from those booking the bets.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Auburn Tigers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Auburn Over 7.5 Wins +115
Auburn Under 7.5 Wins -135
A Case for the Over: The addition of highly touted wide receiver Cam Coleman and transfers Robert Lewis and Ke’Andre Lambert-Smith significantly bolsters Auburn's receiving corps. However, it's the running game that could be the key to surpassing expectations, particularly on offense. Last season, Auburn's offensive line struggled to protect the quarterback, yielding 2.7 sacks per game (No. 102), but excelled in creating running lanes. The Tigers averaged 189.0 rushing yards per game (No. 24) and 4.8 yards per carry (No. 25). With much of the offensive line returning, Senior Guard Jeremiah Wright aims to enhance his NFL draft prospects by being the anchor of a front wall that’s more experienced with added depth. Running back Jarquez Hunter, coming off a season with over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns, is poised to elevate his draft stock further running into the holes created by what I expect to be a vastly improved offensive line. Under Hugh Freeze's more hands-on approach to the offense following last season's underwhelming performance, Auburn anticipates a significant increase in production. The improved efficiency should lead to more points, especially early on, and allow for a defense still putting it all together to find its footing as the season progresses and tougher opponents emerge.
A Case for the Under: Last season, unexpectedly, Auburn's defense emerged as the stronger aspect of the team, contrary to expectations given Hugh Freeze's offensive prowess. Nonetheless, the defense displayed resilience by allowing just over 357 yards (No. 48) and 22 points (No. 43) per game. Their pass defense was particularly impressive, yielding 202.2 yards per game (No. 30) and 7.6 yards per pass attempt (No. 82). However, with both starting cornerbacks now departed, their replacements, including those stepping in at safety, lack experience. Auburn's success last season often correlated with their pass defense performance; wins followed when the defensive secondary excelled, while losses ensued when it faltered. Consequently, it falls on the front seven to support the new and less experienced defensive backs as they acclimate before tougher conference matchups arrive. D.J. Durkin, former Maryland head coach and Texas A&M defensive coordinator, has been entrusted with shaping this unit to complement an offense that is expected to increase its scoring output in Hugh Freeze's second year at the helm. The team's overall success and ability to exceed its season win total ultimately hinges upon Durkin's ability to quickly understand his players' capabilities and instill confidence in them to execute new defensive schemes effectively.
2024-25 Auburn Tigers Schedule
DATE | OPPONENT |
Aug 31 | vs. Alabama A&M |
Sep 7 | vs. California |
Sep 14 | vs. New Mexico |
Sep 21 | vs. Arkansas |
Sep 28 | vs. Oklahoma |
Oct 5 | at Georgia |
Oct 12 | OFF |
Oct 19 | at Missouri |
Oct 26 | at Kentucky |
Nov 2 | vs. Vanderbilt |
Nov 9 | OFF |
Nov 16 | vs. ULM |
Nov 23 | vs. Texas A&M |
Nov 30 | at Alabama |
Without LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Texas on the regular season docket, Auburn avoids matchups against four teams currently installed amongst the favorites to win the SEC, according to the latest SEC championship odds at the online sportsbook. However, they’re set to square off against Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Alabama, with games against the Bulldogs, Tigers, and Crimson Tide set to take place away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Likely favored in their first four home matchups against Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico, and Arkansas, the Tigers could find themselves halfway towards surpassing their win total entering the Week 5 home clash against the Sooners with OU coming off its SEC debut at home against the Volunteers. If a win is secured there, Hugh Freeze's squad will embark on a challenging three-game road stretch starting in Athens. With a bye immediately after, I like the way the schedule shapes up and believe Auburn is good for seven wins at the very least. Should the defense click earlier than anticipated and quarterback Payton Thorne establish chemistry with his revamped receiving corps sooner rather than later, Auburn could emerge as a surprise conference title contender. With this outlook, I’m taking a flier on the over, especially when taking into consideration the more appealing plus-money return.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Auburn Tigers Over 7.5 Wins
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