Despite Boise State controlling its path to bowl eligibility after logging a decisive 42-14 victory over conference rival New Mexico late last season, the program opted for change by parting ways with longtime player, assistant, and head coach Andy Avalos. The bar for success at Boise State has been set high due to the achievements of past coaches like Dan Hawkins, Bryan Harsin, and Chris Petersen. Due to not achieving an top-25 ranking in the AP Poll during his tenure, defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson took over the reins, and the team responded by winning and covering their final two regular-season games against Utah State and Air Force. They followed up with a dominant victory over regular-season champion UNLV in the conference title game, securing their fourth championship since joining the conference in 2011. Heading into the 2024 College Football betting season, Boise State is the odds-on favorite to win the conference title according to current futures odds at the online sportsbook, signaling elevated expectations for a potential College Football Playoff berth in the expanded 12-team format. With significantly higher season win total odds than any of their divisional brethren (9.5), the Broncos enter the season motivated with the talent in tow to make it a memorable campaign for their passionate fan base.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Boise State Broncos 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Boise State Over 9.5 Wins +110
Boise State Under 9.5 Wins -130
A Case for the Over: Boise State relied heavily on a potent ground game last season with Taylen Green at quarterback and Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. While Green has moved on to Arkansas, Jeanty returns after a stellar season that earned him the MWC Player of the Year Award. He amassed 1,916 yards from scrimmage and scored 19 touchdowns, with a significant 1,347 of those yards coming on the ground. Anchored by OT Kage Casey, a veteran offensive line returns four starters from last year's unit that paved the way for nearly 215 rushing yards per game (No. 8) and 5.5 yards per rush attempt (No. 5). Although the passing game was a weak spot, Boise State addressed this by recruiting highly touted Malachi Nelson from USC to lead the offense. Despite the departure of last year's WR1 to TCU, a seasoned group of receivers remains poised to elevate their performance alongside Nelson's passing acumen. The Broncos are expected to deploy a more balanced and effective offensive strategy with their enhanced weaponry, posing challenges for other Mountain West teams after averaging 32.1 points per game with a lesser unit last season. Backing up this offensive prowess is a defense featuring a formidable pass rush, with eight returning starters from last year's squad that improved significantly late in the season. Ahmed Hassanein was the unit’s sackmaster last year, but keep an eye out for Jayden Virgin-Morgan on the other side of the D-Line!
A Case for the Under: In my honest opinion, I see no obstacle preventing the Broncos from exceeding their win total. They clearly stand out as the top team in the conference on paper, and oddsmakers have provided a comfortable two-game cushion, even considering a potential loss at Oregon in the second week of the season. Despite a pair of Pac-2 matchups against Oregon State and Washington State, each will have to pay the "Smurf Turf" a visit, and Albertsons Stadium will undoubtedly be rocking for both games. I have full confidence in Boise State's roster to confidently bet on the team surpassing their win total odds without hesitation. Provided the injury bug doesn’t rear its ugly head, it’s College Football Playoff or bust for a program that deserves to have more of the nationally spotlight shined upon it.
2024-25 Boise State Broncos Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | at Georgia Southern |
| Sep 7 | at Oregon |
| Sep 14 | OFF |
| Sep 21 | vs. Portland State |
| Sep 28 | vs. Washington State |
| Oct 5 | vs. Utah State |
| Oct 12 | at Hawaii |
| Oct 19 | OFF |
| Oct 25 | at UNLV |
| Nov 1 | vs. San Diego State |
| Nov 9 | vs. Nevada |
| Nov 16 | at San Jose State |
| Nov 23 | at Wyoming |
| Nov 29 | vs. Oregon State |
While I would’ve preferred a juiced nine as opposed to a plus-money return at 9.5, I remain confident that Boise State will surpass expectations and reach the Mountain West championship game for the third consecutive season. Since joining the conference, Boise State has consistently been the cream of the MWC crop, and Spencer Danielson appears to have a strong grasp of the team's dynamics. It's important to note that several key players were absent in the LA Bowl loss to UCLA. The Broncos reinforced their status as the team to beat by convincingly taking the regular season champion Runnin’ Rebs out behind the woodshed and serving up a good ‘ol fashioned beating in last year’s title game. With a number of key contributors returning on both sides of the ball, coupled with impactful additions from the transfer portal and recruiting, Boise State is poised to exceed expectations. I anticipate a season with double-digit wins for this talented group, and eagerly await gauging their performance throughout the college football betting season!
College Football Win Total Prediction: Boise State Broncos Over 9.5 Wins
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