Having never partaken in the College Football Playoff and enduring losing seasons for the past three years, the city of Gainesville enters the 2024 College Football betting season questioning what it will take to revive the “Gator Chomp.” Following consecutive double-digit win seasons and bowl game victories under Dan Mullen in 2018 and 2019, the Florida Gators have compiled a 25-25 record over the last four years, disappointing CFB bettors with a 19-30-1 ATS record. Excluding the COVID season, the Gators have endured a number of losses, consistently failing to surpass their listed season win total odds at the online sportsbook in the process. Florida football appears to be at a low point, with Billy Napier’s kids staring back at a 4.5-game win total—the lowest expectations in recent memory. However, the Gators return 15 starters from last year’s squad, making them one of the more experienced teams in the SEC heading into the 2024 college football betting season. Despite a daunting schedule on paper, the games still need to be played. Can it really be this bad?
College Football Season Wins Odds
Florida Gators 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Florida Over 4.5 Wins -160
Florida Under 4.5 Wins +130
A Case for the Over: The play of the offensive line has hampered everything the Gators' offense has tried to do since Napier and Co. took over a few years back. Whether due to injury or poor performance, the front line simply hasn’t been able to open holes for the running game or protect the quarterback well enough to allow the passing game to take shape. Enter San Diego State transfer Brandon Dickson-Crenshaw to protect Graham Mertz’s blindside and serve as the road grader the unit sorely needs to help open running lanes. If he proves to be the missing ingredient, Montrell Johnson, fresh off combining for over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 6 TDs, will be poised to finally exceed the 1,000 rushing yards plateau after gaining 800+ yards in each of his first three collegiate campaigns. Mertz dramatically improved his efficiency last season, throwing only three interceptions alongside a career-high 20 touchdown passes. The transfer portal has brought in some familiar faces for him to target, and UF also boasts a deep tight end room. The Gators' passing offense ranked No. 42 nationally a season ago. If the offensive line can finally become a strength instead of a hindrance, Gainesville might actually get to see what the University saw in Billy Napier, with the offense reaching an entirely new level.
A Case for the Under: Though the Gators are one of the few teams in the conference with several returning starters, the losses incurred are significant. Trevor Etienne, who essentially split carries with Johnson last season, will now be lining up for the Georgia Bulldogs after racking up 753 yards and 8 TDs. While Eugene Wilson III had a solid freshman campaign with 61 receptions for 538 yards and a WR-high 6 TDs, the passing attack will miss Ricky Pearsall, who is set to join the huddle of the San Francisco 49ers. Replacing a nearly 1,000-yard alpha receiver isn't easy. On the other side of the ball, DE Princely Umanmielen and his team-leading 7.0 sacks will be sorely missed after transferring to Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels. Additionally, the loss of LB Scooby Williams to Texas A&M hampers the depth of a linebacker corps expected to be the strength of the defense. Had these key players remained with the program, Florida would look much stronger on both sides of the ball.
2024-25 Florida Gators Schedule
| DATE |
OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 |
vs. Miami-FL |
| Sep 7 |
vs. Samford |
| Sep 14 |
vs. Texas A&M |
| Sep 21 |
at Mississippi State |
| Sep 28 |
OFF |
| Oct 5 |
vs. UCF |
| Oct 12 |
at Tennessee |
| Oct 19 |
vs. Kentucky |
| Oct 26 |
OFF |
| Nov 2 |
vs. Georgia |
| Nov 9 |
at Texas |
| Nov 16 |
vs. LSU |
| Nov 23 |
vs. Mississippi |
| Nov 30 |
at Florida State |
This season goes one of two ways for the Gators: They pull off the mild upset, according to the current CFB betting line +2.5 at the online sportsbook, against the Miami Hurricanes in the season opener and ride that momentum into a breakthrough season. Or, they drop the opener, the offensive line continues to struggle, the defense sorely misses last year’s sack leader, and Napier is shown the door before November’s gauntlet begins. I believe, and hope, it will be the former. At some point, the offense is going to click, showing a semblance of the potent attacks Napier fielded with the Ragin’ Cajuns at his previous stop. There are plenty of opportunities for wins early in the schedule, and I like seeing the second of two bye weeks occurring right before the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” neutral field battle with UGA to kick off November’s challenging slate. The Gators only leave the state of Florida three times and host several of the SEC bigwigs in “The Swamp.” The setup is there for this team, playing with a chip on its shoulder, to become bowl eligible and disrupt one or two of their rivals’ CFP aspirations. If that happens, Florida could easily surpass what CFB bettors might later see as one of the more disrespectful win totals of the 2024 college football betting season. If you share this belief, I’d recommend seeking an alternative over on the CFB futures odds to get much more bang for your buck!
College Football Win Total Prediction: Florida Gators Over 4.5 Wins
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