For the past 25 seasons, Kirk Ferentz has roamed the sidelines in Iowa City calling the shots for an Iowa Hawkeyes program that’s experienced much success under his watch. Last season proved to be no different, with the black and gold logging 10 regular-season wins to exceed their 8.5-game win total odds and represent the B1G West in the title game, where they were blanked by the eventual National Champion Michigan Wolverines, 26-0. They then failed to score a single point in a 35-0 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in the Citrus Bowl. Regardless, the impressive regular-season production saw the Hawkeyes surpass their win total in four of the last five College Football betting seasons. With the Big Ten expanding, linemakers initially set the win total at 7.5 games, though it has since been bet up to 8 at the online sportsbook. Let's dig into the Hawkeyes’ offseason to make an informed decision on how to attack their win total entering the 2024 campaign.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Iowa Over 8 Wins -129
Iowa Under 8 Wins +109
A Case for the Over: As ugly as it was offensively, the Hawkeyes once again proved to be a force on the defensive side of the ball. DC Phil Parker, the most recent Frank Broyles Award recipient for the top assistant in college football, along with Ferentz, have led a masterclass in defense for the last 12 years. Iowa ranked No. 7 overall last season, allowing fewer than 283 yards per game, and No. 4 in points allowed, conceding fewer than 15 per game. Though Cooper DeJean will no longer roam the secondary, Iowa has shown year after year that it only needs to reload to continue being a defensive force. Eight starters from last year’s defense return for the upcoming season, so more of the same is expected. If the newcomers and holdovers can produce more in the pass rush and takeaway departments, this unit has the potential to become special, with Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins anchoring the linebacker core and the safety duo of Quinn Schulte and Xavier Nwankpa preventing most everything from beating them over the top.
A Case for the Under: With Iowa’s offense routinely stinking up the joint, you know where we're headed. Cade McNamara is likely to be challenged by Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan for the QB1 gig, but it's McNamara's job to lose, considering the offense was at its best early last season when he was in control. Iowa scored 20 or more points only five times last season, with three of those games occurring before McNamara sustained a season-ending injury in Week 5 at home against Michigan State. Former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester has been brought in to invigorate the stale passing attack and is expected to improve the unit’s poor overall rankings, which were among the worst in the country across all offensive statistics. However, this transition might take time, potentially preventing the team from securing early wins before the schedule toughens in October.
2024-25 Iowa Hawkeyes Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | vs. Illinois State |
| Sep 7 | vs. Iowa State |
| Sep 14 | vs. Troy |
| Sep 21 | at Minnesota |
| Sep 28 | OFF |
| Oct 5 | at Ohio State |
| Oct 12 | vs. Washington |
| Oct 19 | at Michigan State |
| Oct 26 | vs. Northwestern |
| Nov 2 | vs. Wisconsin |
| Nov 8 | at UCLA |
| Nov 16 | OFF |
| Nov 23 | at Maryland |
| Nov 29 | vs. Nebraska |
The Hawkeyes likely don’t have enough at its disposal to tally another 10-win season and contend for the Big 10 title in the newly expanded conference, but the talent on hand, solid coaching, and a manageable schedule make me bullish on Iowa exceeding win total expectations for the second year in a row. Since 2015, the fewest wins this program has produced is six, with at least eight wins accrued in the other eight seasons and four double-digit winning campaigns. The key to replicating past success is getting off to a fast start. I wouldn’t put it past Ferentz and Co. to do just that with the first four opponents being Illinois State, Iowa State, Troy, and Minnesota. Already installed a 3-point favorite against Iowa State on the “Game of the Year” CFB betting lines, Iowa will pay a visit to the Golden Gophers with a huge chip on their shoulder after absorbing a tough 12-10 home defeat last season. If they secure at least three wins in the first month, six more can be had from the remaining schedule, despite an even split of home and away games. With a likely improved offense paired with a strong defense and special teams, the absence of Illinois, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, and USC from the schedule has me taking a flier on the Hawkeyes securing 8+ wins.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes Over 8 Wins
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