The Kentucky Wildcats have been a successful program under Mark Stoops since his first season in Lexington back in 2013. Though it took three seasons to achieve a winning record, the progression was noticeable, with the team improving from 2-10 to being on the brink of bowl eligibility. Since 2016, the Wildcats have secured bowl invitations eight consecutive times, with the high-water mark for regular season wins being nine. While the team has consistently performed well against comparable opponents, they have routinely fallen short against the elite teams. With 15 starters returning from last year’s 7-6 squad that pushed against its 7-game win total odds at the online sportsbook, the number to beat for the 2024 College Football betting season is set at 6.5, with heavier juice on the over. Will this be the year Kentucky finally takes down a major player, or will they once again do just enough to keep their bowl streak alive? Let’s dig into the offseason roster improvements to make an informed decision on how to approach betting into Kentucky’s win total.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Kentucky Wildcats 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Kentucky Over 6.5 Wins -128
Kentucky Under 6.5 Wins +108
A Case for the Over: The Wildcats did a fantastic job navigating through the transfer portal waters and hooking a number of big fish. First and foremost, the offense will have a supposed stud lining up under center after Brock Vandagriff decided to leave Athens for a more reliable starting gig in Lexington following Carson Beck's decision to return to the Dawgs for the 2024-25 season. The big-bodied, mobile QB will put a jolt into an offense that failed to impress on the ground (No. 97) or through the air (No. 85) a season ago. Also joining the Wildcats’ attack is former Ohio State RB DeaMonte Trayanum, who will benefit from running behind an improved offensive line anchored by Eli Cox, one of the best centers the SEC currently has to offer. This dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield should elevate the offense, with an improved running game enabling more success through the air. Except for the surprising 38-point eruption against a solid Louisville defense in the regular season finale, Kentucky’s offense was largely held in check by most of the conference’s heavy hitters. With the scoring output likely to improve, the Wildcats will find themselves in a better position to come out on top in a few more close games.
A Case for the Under: As strong as Kentucky was at shutting down opposing ground games—holding opponents to 113.1 yards per game (No. 19) and a paltry 3.3 yards per carry (No. 12)—the pass defense left much to be desired. The unit was routinely shredded through the air, evidenced by the 240+ yards allowed per game (No. 92) and the 7.2 yards allowed per attempt (No. 61). However, they compensated with an average of 2.7 sacks per game (No. 19). The front seven looks rock solid once again, with Deone Walker likely to be one of the more sought-after defensive tackles in next year’s NFL Draft, assuming he doesn't stick around for his senior campaign. However, the secondary loses a lot of experience, making way for a new crop of pass defenders who might struggle if the unit’s pressure rate falls off. The defense will be heavily reliant on the front line wreaking enough havoc to prevent opposing offenses from repeatedly exploiting defenders in coverage. That's a tough sell in the pass-heavy SEC!
2024-25 Kentucky Wildcats Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | vs. Southern Miss |
| Sep 7 | vs. South Carolina |
| Sep 14 | vs. Georgia |
| Sep 21 | vs. Ohio |
| Sep 28 | at Mississippi |
| Oct 5 | OFF |
| Oct 12 | vs. Vanderbilt |
| Oct 19 | at Florida |
| Oct 26 | vs. Auburn |
| Nov 2 | at Tennessee |
| Nov 9 | OFF |
| Nov 16 | vs. Murray State |
| Nov 23 | at Texas |
| Nov 30 | vs. Louisville |
The Wildcats have exceeded their current 6.5-game win total each of the last three seasons, but they barely managed to get there in the last two. Five of their six losses came in SEC play last season, with most of their wins coming against non-conference opponents. While likely to start the season with a win, given that Kentucky is a decisive 26-point CFB odds home favorite against Southern Mississippi, I'm not optimistic about the team matching last year’s win total. I understand that there's an influx of talent on the offensive side of the ball and that the defense is expected to be strong against the run once again, but will it all come together quickly enough to get out to the start necessitated by over bettors to exceed this target? I have my doubts. At best, Kentucky could be 4-2 halfway through the season, with expected losses to Georgia and Ole Miss. Are we prepared to bank on three more wins from a schedule that closes @Florida, Auburn, @Tennessee, Murray State, @Texas, and Louisville? That’s a nasty gauntlet to close the year that foreshadows a step back in 2024, putting the program in jeopardy of having its bowl streak snapped.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats Under 6.5 Wins
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