The first go-round of the Brian Kelly regime saw the LSU Tigers exceed expectations by winning nine regular season games, smashing the linemaker’s 6.5-game posted win total. Though the Heisman Trophy winner came out of Baton Rouge in the second go-round, the "Bayou Bengals" failed to live up to their win total odds, matching the prior season’s nine regular season wins and falling just short of the 9.5-game mark. Will the third time be the charm? Not only from a win total perspective, but in being a major player and pertinent contender in the national championship landscape? LSU hasn’t sniffed the CFP in Kelly’s first two attempts overlooking the program. There won’t be any excuse in the upcoming College Football betting season now that the field has expanded to 12 teams. And not with 12 returning starters, six on both sides of the ball, and numerous impactful additions brought in via the transfer portal. Let’s break it all down to make an informed decision on whether the Tigers have the goods to make 2024-25 one of the more memorable seasons for the program.
College Football Season Wins Odds
LSU Tigers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
LSU Over 9 Wins -140
LSU Under 9 Wins +120
A Case for the Over: As brilliant as the offense was, with the quarterback going into the history books as the best college football player of the year, the defense's overall play clocked in at the opposite end of the spectrum. Shockingly, there was no answer for opposing rushing attacks with the Tigers serving up a whopping 163.4 yards per game (No. 91). By the end of the campaign, LSU had given up over 2,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive year. Recognizing the need for improvement, Kelly brought in Blake Baker from the Missouri Tigers, whose run defenses shined under his watch over the last two seasons. LSU is loaded up front with size, and the linebacker core is anchored by one of the nation’s best in Harold Perkins, who accumulated 13 sacks and 26 tackles for loss in his first two seasons in Baton Rouge. The secondary returns nearly intact, except for the cornerback positions, which will be taken over by a pair of green yet uber-talented players in Ashton Stamps and Jardin Gilbert. If they hit, it’s likely the Tigers' secondary won't rank among the worst in the SEC or the country. If Baker can push all the right buttons, LSU will be CFP viable and crush its win total at the online sportsbook in the process.
A Case for the Under: The star power on the Tigers’ offensive roster last year was a sight to behold. Jayden Daniels threw for over 3,800 yards with a 40:4 TD/INT ratio while adding 1,100+ yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He’s now the QB1 for the Washington Commanders. Malik Nabers was his favorite target, catching 86 passes for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns. Brian Thomas Jr. also shone, recording 60 catches for 1,079 yards and a team-high 15 touchdown receptions. Nabers and Thomas are now playing for the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, respectively. Along with losing their top two pass catchers, the team also saw their RB1, who racked up 652 yards and 7 touchdowns, enter the transfer portal to play for Ole Miss this season. Losing one key player can be tough for any offense, but LSU seemingly lost all its offensive lifeblood. However, this is LSU, known as "Wide Receiver U," so it's likely a new breed of wide receivers and/or tight ends will step up to fill the void. The big question is whether QB Garrett Nussmeier is the guy to take them to the next level. I'm not so sure. LSU's offense goes from an uber-strength to a major question mark in the blink of an eye.
2024-25 LSU Tigers Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Sep 1 | vs. USC |
| Sep 7 | vs. Nicholls |
| Sep 14 | at South Carolina |
| Sep 21 | vs. UCLA |
| Sep 28 | vs. South Alabama |
| Oct 5 | OFF |
| Oct 12 | vs. Mississippi |
| Oct 19 | at Arkansas |
| Oct 26 | at Texas A&M |
| Nov 2 | OFF |
| Nov 9 | vs. Alabama |
| Nov 16 | at Florida |
| Nov 23 | vs. Vanderbilt |
| Nov 30 | vs. Oklahoma |
When examining the Tigers' 2024 regular season docket, college football bettors will notice it's void of matchups against Texas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Georgia. While Mississippi and Alabama are on the 12-game slate, both the Rebels and Crimson Tide will have to visit Death Valley. So, riddle me this, Batman: why is LSU a 10-1 choice to win the SEC this season? Sure, Georgia is the indestructible force that most college football pundits believe will cruise to the SEC title game, but have you seen the Dawgs' schedule? The Tigers' assignment pales in comparison. The toughest road test comes against Texas A&M. While playing in front of the 12th Man is tough, LSU wins that game as short road dogs. They’ll likely go into South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida and come out victorious as well. Shame on Brian Kelly if a double-digit win tally can’t be achieved with this schedule being served up on a silver platter!
College Football Win Total Prediction: LSU Tigers Over 9 Wins
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