Though the Missouri Tigers qualified for bowl seasons the prior two years, it wasn’t until last year that the Eli Drinkwitz era truly took shape in Columbia. Mizzou logged its first double-digit winning campaign since 2014 and capped the stellar season off with a Cotton Bowl triumph over a disinterested Ohio State Buckeyes team. With the College Football Playoff expanding and the Tigers returning 13 starters from last year’s 11-2 squad that covered the closing College Football betting lines nine times, Mizzou is a chic pick to make some noise in the betting market heading into the regular season. This optimism makes sense considering eight offensive starters return from a unit that was one of the SEC’s best. Additionally, the defense showed significant improvement and now faces what appears to be a more favorable schedule on paper compared to last season. So, what should we do? Should we bet the over on the team’s 9.5-game win total odds and project another step forward under Drinkwitz, who has never overseen a losing team in his five seasons as a head coach at the collegiate level? Or should we anticipate the program taking a step back? Let’s dig into the offseason moves and make an informed decision on which way to go.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Missouri Tigers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Missouri Over 9.5 Wins +119
Missouri Under 9.5 Wins -139
A Case for the Over: It begins and ends with the offense led by QB Brady Cook, who enters his third season at the helm for the Tigers. Last season, the unit was sharp, maintaining a balanced attack that resulted in the nation’s No. 27 ranked total offense, averaging 32.5 points per game (No. 29). They excelled in the red zone (No. 3) and took exceptional care of the ball, turning it over a grand total of six times all season. Cook, who surpassed the 3,000-yard passing mark for the first time in his career, will have an opportunity to improve on last season’s output with WR Luther Burden III back for his junior campaign. Burden, who exceeded 1,200 receiving yards and hauled nine touchdowns in last season, is touted as one of the country’s best pass catchers. Each will benefit from one of the conference’s best offensive lines, with three starters returning from last year’s rock solid unit. The running game also gets a boost from a pair of transfer portal additions. All in all, Missouri is set to thrive on the offensive side of the ball. With the defense overhauled and needing some time to gel, the ability to reach a near 10-game win total will ultimately fall into the hands of the offense.
A Case for the Under: While the offense hogged the spotlight last season, the defense did most of the dirty work, putting the team in a position to succeed in almost every game. Missouri excelled at getting after the quarterback, averaging 3.2 sacks per game (No. 8). They also forced opponents into mistakes, with the defense generating 1.6 takeaways per game (No. 41). However, key contributors are now gone: Darius Robinson, the team's sack leader (8.5), is with the Arizona Cardinals, and Kris Abrams-Draine, the top ball hawk in the secondary (4 interceptions), is now on the Denver Broncos roster. Though several decent holdovers return and the Tigers bolstered their front seven through the transfer portal, it's uncertain how quickly the defense can replicate last season’s success in those key areas. It may take some time for the unit to find its footing, and they must do so by the time the SEC schedule heats up in October. If not, it will be nearly impossible for the team to reach 10 wins and reward those who believed in them from the outset of the season.
2024-25 Missouri Tigers Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 29 | vs. Murray State |
| Sep 7 | vs. Buffalo |
| Sep 14 | vs. Boston College |
| Sep 21 | vs. Vanderbilt |
| Sep 28 | OFF |
| Oct 5 | at Texas A&M |
| Oct 12 | at UMass |
| Oct 19 | vs. Auburn |
| Oct 26 | at Alabama |
| Nov 2 | OFF |
| Nov 9 | vs. Oklahoma |
| Nov 16 | at South Carolina |
| Nov 23 | at Mississippi State |
| Nov 30 | vs. Arkansas |
Drinkwitz and his staff have done a phenomenal job turning the fortunes of the Tigers’ program around. I never truly understood the University’s desire to join the SEC, but it is what it is. Things fell right for the Tigers across the board last season, which allowed the program to achieve such a memorable season. I'm not sure this roster, as assembled, can catch lightning in a bottle for the second time in as many years. Sure, there’s no Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, Florida, or Tennessee on the schedule. Even more importantly, the Tigers also bypass Georgia and Texas, who just so happen to be the favorites at the online sportsbook to take home SEC bragging rights this season. However, there are still road trips to Texas A&M and Alabama, and those home tilts against Auburn and Oklahoma won’t be walks in the park either. A slip up at South Carolina or Mississippi State is always a viable possibility as well. While it wouldn’t shock me if those games are ultimately split and Mizzou goes on to win 10 games, I think the losses to graduation and the portal are greater than what was brought in to replace them. With that, I forecast the Tigers coming up a win or two short of toppling this year’s bloated win total.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Missouri Tigers Under 9.5 Wins
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