2024 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Season Win Total Odds and Pick

South Bend has consistently enjoyed a winning brand of football, regardless of the coaching staff. Although this success hasn't translated into national championships, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish has only endured four losing seasons since the turn of the century. After Brian Kelly's departure, the program continued its strong performance, with Marcus Freeman leading the team to eight and nine-win regular seasons. Now entering Freeman's third year, and with a favorable schedule in tow, the team is projected to be a contender in the expanded College Football Playoff, with sportsbooks setting 10.5-game win total odds. Despite only eight returning starters from last year’s 10-win team, which capped the year off with a dominant victory over Oregon State in the Sun Bowl, the Irish are still favored at -175 to make their first CFP appearance since 2021. However, their last two trips to the Final Four revealed shortcomings. Will the 2024-25 College Football betting season be any different?

College Football Season Wins Odds

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Notre Dame Over 10.5 Wins +142

Notre Dame Under 10.5 Wins -175

A Case for the Over: Despite returning only eight starters from last year's 10-win team, five situate themselves on the defensive side of the ball, where the Fighting Irish excelled last season. The defense ranked No. 5 overall, allowing just over 276 yards per game proving to be particularly strong in the secondary, where the unit surrendered fewer than 158 passing yards per game. Although several key positions need to be filled with new faces, defensive coordinator Al Golden has thrived since his return to college football in 2022, and the unit has noticeably improved under his leadership. While the secondary loses some key contributors, standout players like Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts return, bolstered by additions from the transfer portal. Last season, Notre Dame allowed just 119.0 rushing yards per game, ranking No. 28 nationally. The front seven, with several returning players and portal additions, looks poised to maintain or even improve upon last year's outputs. On paper, the defense appears capable of matching or exceeding last year's success. If that holds true, it will give the retooled offense time to find its rhythm early in the season before becoming a more needed potent force as the campaign progresses.

A Case for the Under: Riley Leonard has the potential to become one of the best quarterbacks to ever don a golden helmet, but realistically, Notre Dame's offense could struggle to qualify for the CFP if the Duke transfer isn't fully recovered from the ankle injury that limited him to seven games last season. In his only injury-free season, the now-senior passed for 2,967 yards with a 20:6 TD/INT ratio while adding another 699 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Although there is plenty of talent waiting in the wings, it is largely untested. Steve Angeli got most of his snaps in the bowl game, and while C.J. Carr comes highly touted, he is as green as they come. The offense also faces challenges with the departure of Audric Estime to the NFL, along with key offensive linemen Joe Alt and Blake Fisher. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, in his third stint in South Bend, will have a lot on his plate to reignite the offense. While it’s likely that things will come together, given Notre Dame's recent track record of grooming NFL talent, everything will need to click at some point for the Fighting Irish to surpass their double-digit win total and be a serious contender for the CFP.

2024-25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Schedule

For Notre Dame to have a realistic shot at surpassing win total expectations in consecutive seasons, they’ll likely need to start strong by defeating the Texas A&M Aggies in front of the 12th Man. Currently, oddsmakers have that matchup listed as a toss-up, with the Irish installed one-point College Station underdogs. Despite games against Florida State and @USC scheduled in the final month, Notre Dame is currently favored to win both matchups at the online sportsbook. As things stand, the Irish are expected to be favored in all but one of their 12 games. Potential pitfalls could arise at Purdue and Georgia Tech, or at home against Louisville, but the talent on the roster and the coaching staff's experience make it likely Notre Dame navigates these challenges successfully. The ultimate goal for this season is to secure the highest possible seed in the CFP, which could be fifth, given their inability to compete in a conference title game. Achieving this will likely require an 11-win season. If the team fends off the injury bug, Notre Dame has enough premier talent to make another run at a College Football Playoff bid. With that in mind, I'm optimistic about the Irish exceeding their futures market expectations and will take a stance on the team going over their win total odds at an attractive plus-money return.

College Football Win Total Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over 10.5 Wins

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