2024 Oklahoma Sooners Season Win Total Odds and Pick

Normalcy returned to Norman in Brent Venables' second go-round as head coach after the Oklahoma Sooners logged a 10-win season, though it ended with a disappointing 38-24 loss to the Arizona Wildcats in the Alamo Bowl. Despite the improvement, it marked the fourth straight season that OU missed out on the College Football Playoff, a significant drought for a program that qualified in four of the first seven years of the CFP's existence. Now, no longer in the relatively weaker and expanded Big 12, the Sooners have entered the rough and tumble SEC, and oddsmakers seem to have taken a bearish stance on the team in their inaugural campaign. Once a perennial favorite to win the National Championship, Oklahoma is now listed at 75-1 to win it all and clocks in a +475 underdog to qualify for the expanded CFP. Additionally, the Sooners are +3000 to win the SEC crown. Given these odds, it’s no surprise that the team’s win total has dropped to 7.5, a year a year removed from it going off the board 9.5 while a member of the Big 12. The big question now is whether OU will sink or swim in its maiden voyage within the SEC. Let’s take a closer look at the offseason moves to make an informed decision on how to bet Oklahoma’s win total.

College Football Season Wins Odds

Oklahoma Sooners 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds

Oklahoma Over 7.5 Wins -130

Oklahoma Under 7.5 Wins +110

A Case for the Over: Given Brent Venables' defensive background, there were high expectations for the Sooners' defense upon his return to Norman. However, that hasn't fully materialized in his first two seasons at the helm. While the defense did a respectable job limiting points, allowing 22.3 per game (No. 37) and forcing opponents to travel 16.6 yards per point scored (No. 18), they struggled in other areas. The run defense allowed over 148 yards per game (No. 58), and the secondary was vulnerable, giving up more than 242 yards per game (No. 98). Of the eight returning starters, six are on defense, giving the Sooners' back seven solid experience and depth. While the defensive line is being retooled, the linebacker unit, anchored by Danny Stutsman and Kip Lewis, is among the better groups in the SEC, and the secondary is deep and experienced. Although the level of competition will be tougher in the SEC, Oklahoma’s defensive strength is a significant advantage as they navigate this new challenge. If the Sooners are to exceed their modest win total, the defense will need to step up and carry the team while the retooled offense finds its identity and rhythm, starting with the quarterback.

A Case for the Under: While Jackson Arnold comes in highly touted and offered a glimpse of his potential by throwing for 361 yards and two touchdowns in the bowl loss to Arizona, the Sooners took a hit with the departure of Dillon Gabriel to the transfer portal. Gabriel, who is poised for a big season with the Oregon Ducks, leaves behind some massive shoes to fill, having thrown for nearly 15,000 yards and 125 touchdowns in his career. Arnold will have the benefit of working with one of the more experienced wide receiver corps in the conference, led by big-play threat Nic Anderson. The offensive line has been reinforced through the transfer portal, and the running back room is talented, albeit largely untested. While this setup might have been enough to get by in last year’s Big 12, the transition to the SEC presents a much tougher challenge, with the Sooners facing top-tier competition every week. Given the way the schedule is set up in their first SEC season, it will be difficult for Oklahoma to exceed their lowest win total in years. A slip-up in non-conference play could make it nearly impossible to surpass expectations.

2024-25 Oklahoma Sooners Schedule

Oklahoma has been showing signs of decline for several years now. While they've managed to stay afloat against lesser opposition, this college football season will crank up the pressure, and I'm not convinced Venables has the solutions to guide this team to success in their first SEC run. Just look at the schedule: Tennessee, @Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, @Ole Miss, @Mizzou, Alabama, and @LSU. There's not a single layup in the mix, and I’d be surprised if the Sooners managed a winning record against these conference foes. They’re currently catching points on the lookahead CFB odds to the Longhorns +8.5, Rebels +6.5, Tigers +3.5, Crimson Tide +2.5, and Tigers +5.5! The talent is certainly there for Oklahoma to prove me wrong and surprise everyone, but the SEC is as unforgiving as it gets. I believe this roster needs a season to mature and endure some growing pains before becoming a team that the conference truly fears down the road.

College Football Win Total Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners Under 7.5 Wins

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