It’s College Football Playoff or bust for the Oklahoma State Cowboys this College Football betting season. With Texas and Oklahoma no longer dominating the Big 12 and making it their own personal stomping grounds, the conference is searching for a new powerhouse, and Mike Gundy’s Cowboys could be it. Remember, he’s a man and now he’s now almost 60! The Cowpokes shot caller leads a squad that returns a nation-high 20 starters from a team that went 10-4 and capped the season off with a 31-23 win in the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M. Sure, they were routed 49-21 in the Big 12 title game by the Longhorns, but let's not dwell on that. If Oklahoma State’s returning production is as elite as advertised, why is their win total set at 8, and their odds to win the conference +702 longer than Utah and Kansas State, and only slightly shorter than Central Florida and Kansas? There must be reasons for this skepticism. Let’s dissect the Cowboys’ DNA and find the best way to approach their win total as they aim to exceed expectations for the fourth time in five years.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Oklahoma State Cowboys 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Oklahoma State Over 8 Wins -139
Oklahoma State Under 8 Wins +119
A Case for the Over: Last season, Alan Bowman was handed the opportunity to run the Oklahoma State offense, and the third-year senior made the most of it. Staying healthy for all 14 games, he threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. While the 14 interceptions are a concern, his leadership helped the Cowboys rank No. 27 nationally in passing. The receiving corps, led by Brennan Presley, is solid, but it's the offensive line and running game that truly set the Cowboys offense for an even more successful campaign in 2024-25. Despite a No. 68 ranking in rushing, Ollie Gordon II still went on to win the Doak Walker Award, racking up over 1,700 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground. With four starters returning to the offensive line and solid depth behind them, the Cowboys' running game is poised to improve and dominate once again. If the passing game continues to thrive, Oklahoma State will field one of the most lethal and efficient offenses in the Big 12 which will put the team in a position to surpass its disrespectful win total odds.
A Case for the Under: The defense ranked among the worst in the country last season, so even with 10 starters returning, it remains to be seen if the offseason worth of work put in to improve will pay off. The unit served up over 441 yards per game (No. 125) and allowed nearly 29 points per game (No. 91). On top of that, it proved to be a sieve against both the pass (No. 126) and run (No. 97). If not for forcing an average of 1.7 turnovers per game (No. 23), the defense would have been in serious trouble. Largely bailed out by the offense’s ability to hang crooked numbers on the board, the defense allowed 30+ points seven times and was hammered for 40+ points in the four defeats. While experience returns in all three phases of the stop unit, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s of high quality. If the same defensive shortcomings persist and they can no longer rely on turnovers, Oklahoma State could end up being the fraud that oddsmakers predict, failing to exceed their win total or pose a threat in the newly expanded Big 12.
2024-25 Oklahoma State Cowboys Schedule
| DATE |
OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 |
vs. South Dakota State |
| Sep 7 |
vs. Arkansas |
| Sep 14 |
at Tulsa |
| Sep 21 |
vs. Utah |
| Sep 28 |
at Kansas State |
| Oct 5 |
vs. West Virginia |
| Oct 12 |
OFF |
| Oct 18 |
at BYU |
| Oct 26 |
at Baylor |
| Nov 2 |
vs. Arizona State |
| Nov 9 |
at TCU |
| Nov 16 |
OFF |
| Nov 23 |
vs. Texas Tech |
| Nov 29 |
at Colorado |
I confidently laid the two touchdowns with Texas in last year’s Big 12 title game, fully aware that the Cowboys were more smoke and mirrors than league title worthy after incurring some eye-opening defeats in the regular season. Even though the upcoming schedule seems manageable on paper, with the toughest non-conference game at home against Arkansas and no matchups against Arizona, Kansas, UCF, or Iowa State, I’m still not convinced Oklahoma State will prove to be the cream of the Big 12 crop. I’m not sold on Bowman as the QB1, and I have serious doubts about whether the defense will improve enough if the offense falters or if turnovers aren’t as plentiful. Road trips to BYU, TCU, and Colorado won’t be walks in the park either. While this is undoubtedly a bowl-worthy team, I don’t see them being a major contender for conference bragging rights given the issues on both sides of the ball. I’ll take a flier on the under and challenge Gundy and Co. to prove me wrong.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys Under 8 Wins
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