After back-to-back ten-win seasons, the Penn St. Nittany Lions are entering the 2024-25 College Football betting season with the sole intent of exceeding their win total for the third straight year and becoming a more prominent force in the newly expanded Big Ten Conference. Last season, the team finished 7-2 in B1G play, with their only losses coming against Ohio State and Michigan, before falling 38-25 to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl as 6-point favorites. Under James Franklin, Penn State has only had one losing season, and the veteran coach now has 11 starters returning, hoping to lead the program to its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have historically been Penn State's kryptonite, and this season, they only square off against the former. However, the schedule still presents numerous challenges, which is why oddsmakers have set their win total a full game lower than expected heavyweights OSU and Oregon. Is this a mistake? Let's analyze Penn State's offseason moves and returning talent to determine whether the win total is undervalued or justified.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Penn State Nittany Lions 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Penn State Over 9.5 Wins -165
Penn State Under 9.5 Wins +134
A Case for the Over: A look at the Nittany Lions' 7.5-game conference win total odds suggests that sportsbooks expect this year's squad to rack up a significant number of victories within the Big Ten. Both Ohio State and Oregon have the same win total target, but with different odds: the Buckeyes and Ducks have -140 and -115 juice attached to the over, respectively, while Penn State's over comes with a +140 vig supplanted on the high side of their target number. The Nittany Lions will rely upon six returning starters from a defense that ranked out as the nation’s No. 2 overall unit, allowing fewer than two touchdowns per game (No. 3) and fielding top-10 passing and rushing defenses every week. While some key players from that dominant unit need to be replaced, Penn State has excelled in recruiting and attacking the transfer portal on the defensive side of the ball, with several new faces ready to step in and make an impact. Notably, they poached highly-touted prospect A.J. Harris from Georgia to fill one of the cornerback spots in the secondary. The front seven is expected to remain relentless in generating sacks and tackles for loss, making Penn State's defense one of the most feared in the nation. If the offense can provide more support, the Nittany Lions could be a formidable force, even more so than anticipated by the college football futures odds market.
A Case for the Under: It's still uncertain what Drew Allar will bring to the table after a season where he saw the most action of his college career. He took excellent care of the ball, posting a 25:2 TD/INT ratio on 389 dropbacks, but only threw for 2,631 yards with a modest 6.8 yards per pass attempt. His leading receiver tallied just 673 yards and has since transferred to Auburn. TE Tyler Warren was the second-most reliable target, turning 34 receptions into 422 yards and seven touchdowns. The passing game lacked a downfield threat, but that could change with former Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki now onboard, tasked with revitalizing the aerial attack after helping to rebuild the Jayhawks under Lance Leipold. Julian Fleming, a portal acquisition from Ohio State, could play a significant role in this overhaul. However, if the offense continues to struggle with passing efficiency and fails to establish a downfield threat, it will be tough for the Nittany Lions to compete with the offensive powerhouses on their schedule.
2024-25 Penn State Nittany Lions Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | at West Virginia |
| Sep 7 | vs. Bowling Green |
| Sep 14 | OFF |
| Sep 21 | vs. Kent State |
| Sep 28 | vs. Illinois |
| Oct 5 | vs. UCLA |
| Oct 12 | at USC |
| Oct 19 | OFF |
| Oct 26 | at Wisconsin |
| Nov 2 | vs. Ohio State |
| Nov 9 | vs. Washington |
| Nov 16 | at Purdue |
| Nov 23 | at Minnesota |
| Nov 30 | vs. Maryland |
The ultimate goal for the 2024-25 Penn State Nittany Lions is to win at least 10 games, which would topple their season win total odds and more than likely secure their first-ever invite to the College Football Playoff. Looking at the schedule, this is a very realistic possibility. The Nittany Lions avoid Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan, and have the advantage of hosting Ohio State, Illinois, and Washington at Beaver Stadium. While they face consecutive road games against USC and Wisconsin, they’ll have an extra week to prepare for the Badgers after the West Coast clash with the Trojans. The schedule is tailor made for Penn State to rack up wins and position itself for a return to the Big Ten title game for the first time since 2016. Though I’m not usually a fan of laying chalk on futures bets, this feels like the best option. For Franklin and Penn State, it's CFP or bust!
College Football Win Total Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions Over 9.5 Wins
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
Check out the latest odds at BookMaker
