The Tennessee Volunteers surpassed their season win total odds in the first two years under head coach Josh Heupel, but they took a step back last season, falling just short of their 9-win target with only eight victories. After a strong 6-2 SEC record the previous year, the Vols finished last season with a .500 conference record, suffering losses to Florida, Alabama, Mizzou, and Georgia. Although they capped the season with a dominant 35-0 win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, they enter the upcoming season with just eight returning starters, leading to a slightly bearish outlook from the College Football betting market. Despite the win total remaining at 9 games, bettors are favoring the under, as reflected by the heavier juice on that side of the line. Tennessee is also listed as a 12-1 underdog to win the SEC and has a 5.5-game conference win total. These odds suggest the Vols are not seen as strong contenders for the expanded College Football Playoff. So, what can we expect from Tennessee this season? Let’s take a closer look at Rocky Top to see if there’s any value in betting their win total.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Tennessee Volunteers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Tennessee Over 9 Wins +101
Tennessee Under 9 Wins -121
A Case for the Over: When you think of Tennessee under the current regime, the offense immediately comes to mind, given its explosive performance over the last two seasons. In 2022, Hendon Hooker took the unit to new heights, and Joe Milton continued that momentum last year, helping the Vols rank among the top 20 both overall and in scoring. The Nico Lamaleava era was on deck last season, but now, as the team heads into 2024-25, he’s stepping up to the plate, generating excitement among the Knoxville faithful about what the offense could achieve under his leadership. College football bettors got a preview of Lamaleava's potential last season when he threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 71 yards and three scores on the ground, with most of the damage done in the bowl game. The passing game looks even more promising now that the torch has been passed, with Squirrel White leading a solid receiving corps bolstered by transfers. The offensive line is expected to improve with the addition of Lance Heard, complementing the experienced interior. While Jaylen Wright’s departure is significant, Dylan Sampson and others are poised to step up and excel behind the offense’s strength. With only three defensive starters returning, the offense will need to set the tone early for Tennessee to reach a 10-win season and potentially enter the College Football Playoff conversation.
A Case for the Under: While the offense has garnered most of the attention in recent years, Tennessee's defense has quietly held its own. Last season, the defense allowed just over 335 yards per game (No. 31) and kept opponents to under 21 points per game (No. 23). The unit was particularly disruptive, ranking fourth in the country in tackles for loss and averaging nearly 3.0 sacks per game (No. 13). James Pearce Jr., the team’s leading pass rusher, returns and is poised to build on his 11 sacks from last year. The defensive line is expected to be the unit's overall strength early on, but the back seven raises concerns that likely has CFB bettors taking the bullish stance previously mentioned. Several key playmakers have graduated or transferred out, leaving the secondary particularly vulnerable, as it must replace the entire starting lineup from last season. Although the transfer portal has provided some immediate help, the loss of depth and production is significant. If the new faces struggle to gel early on, it could result in a few costly losses that hinder Tennessee’s chances of surpassing linemaker’s expectations.
2024-25 Tennessee Volunteers Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | vs. Chattanooga |
| Sep 7 | vs. NC State |
| Sep 14 | vs. Kent State |
| Sep 21 | at Oklahoma |
| Sep 28 | OFF |
| Oct 5 | at Arkansas |
| Oct 12 | vs. Florida |
| Oct 19 | vs. Alabama |
| Oct 26 | OFF |
| Nov 2 | vs. Kentucky |
| Nov 9 | vs. Mississippi State |
| Nov 16 | at Georgia |
| Nov 23 | vs. UTEP |
| Nov 30 | at Vanderbilt |
Tennessee has two major tests early in the season, with matchups set to go against NC State at a neutral site and the SEC opener on the road against Oklahoma. The Vols are currently favored by 4.5 points against the Wolfpack and are 3.5-point underdogs against the Sooners per the current season-long college football betting lines. Their remaining road games include trips to Arkansas, Georgia, and Vanderbilt. While only expected to be underdogs “Between the Hedges,” they’ll be favored in the other two matchups. Should everything go according to the CFB betting lines in those matchups, they'll need to win all seven of their other games to surpass the 9-game win total. That’s a tall order, especially with challenging home games against Florida, Alabama, and Kentucky on the docket. Although Tennessee has a promising mix of youth and experience and avoids many of the SEC’s heavy hitters, I’m not convinced this is the year they put it all together. Lamaleava has the potential to prove me wrong, but I’m skeptical and will bet on the under, expecting a nine-win season at best followed by a fourth straight bowl game appearance for the program.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers Under 9 Wins
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