Since joining the SEC, the Texas A&M Aggies’ fan base has overlooked two coaching regimes with little to celebrate. The program hasn't hit double-digit wins since Kevin Sumlin's first season in 2012, with the high-water mark being eight regular-season wins since then. After six disappointing years, Jimbo Fisher was replaced by Mike Elko, who took over following a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl—A&M's first postseason appearance in two years. Entering this College Football betting season, the Aggies are looking to put a halt to a four-year streak of falling short of their win total odds. The online sportsbook has set the bar at 8.5 wins, which is surprising given the new coaching staff only has 11 returning starters to work with. However, Elko's success at Duke, where he led the Blue Devils to 16 wins and a bowl victory in two years, suggests he could turn things around. Will his leadership be enough to get A&M back on track and into contention for the expanded College Football Playoff? Let’s dive into the state of the Aggies and decide how to best approach their win total.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Texas A&M Aggies 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins -115
Texas A&M Under 8.5 Wins -105
A Case for the Over: Jimbo didn’t leave College Station in disarray; in fact, it can be argued some of the SEC’s best talent currently resides on the Aggies roster. The transfer portal also brought in welcome additions on both sides of the ball. With Elko's proven coaching ability either as a defensive coordinator or head coach, this isn’t likely to be a rebuilding year for Texas A&M. The schedule also sets the stage for immediate success. A&M faces its toughest opponents—Notre Dame, LSU, Mizzou, and Texas—at home in Kyle Field in front of the 12th Man, while its four road games come against Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Auburn, only one of which qualified for a bowl last season. Notably absent from the schedule are Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Kentucky! The football gods seem to be smiling on College Station this season. For one reason or another, the football gods look to be smiling down upon College Station.
A Case for the Under: I have key reservations about the Aggies on both sides of the ball heading into the regular season. First, there's uncertainty at quarterback with Conner Weigman, who showed promise last year by throwing for 979 yards and an 8:2 TD/INT ratio, but the sophomore only has four starts and nine total games under his belt. The second concern is the defense, which returns just four starters from a unit that ranked No. 19 overall and excelled against the run, allowing fewer than 109 yards per game (No. 14). While the D-Line gains a solid addition in Purdue EDGE Nic Scourton, it loses a potential NFL-caliber DT in Walter Nolen to SEC rival Ole Miss. The secondary has been completely revamped with several new pieces added via the portal. How quickly this defense adapts to the new coaching staff's schemes will be crucial to Texas A&M's success in the competitive SEC. If they don’t hit the ground running, ending their win total under streak will be challenging.
2024-25 Texas A&M Aggies Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | vs. Notre Dame |
| Sep 7 | vs. McNeese |
| Sep 14 | at Florida |
| Sep 21 | vs. Bowling Green |
| Sep 28 | vs. Arkansas |
| Oct 5 | vs. Missouri |
| Oct 12 | OFF |
| Oct 19 | at Mississippi State |
| Oct 26 | vs. LSU |
| Nov 2 | at South Carolina |
| Nov 9 | OFF |
| Nov 16 | vs. New Mexico State |
| Nov 23 | at Auburn |
| Nov 30 | vs. Texas |
The Aggies' quest to exceed their win total odds and become a prominent contender for CFP eligibility starts immediately with a tough season opener at Kyle Field against the No. 7 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Currently, linemakers have the Aggies installed slight 2.5-point favorites, according to the online sportsbook. A win would set the tone for a strong start, with upcoming games against McNeese, @Florida, Bowling Green, and a neutral site clash with Arkansas before hosting No. 11 Missouri. Of the three "Game of the Year" lines against the Gators, Tigers, and Longhorns, Texas A&M is favored in all but the season finale against Texas. This speaks to the favorable schedule the Aggies have on paper. Once a +300 underdog to qualify for the College Football Playoff, the odds have shifted to +225, signaling increased confidence in the Aggies under Elko's leadership. I believe the combination of talent and a favorable schedule will allow A&M to make waves in 2024, keeping them in the CFP discussion through November. With that, I’m taking a flier on the Aggies exceeding oddsmakers' expectations and putting an end to years of failing to come through as a member of the SEC.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Texas A&M Aggies Over 8.5 Wins
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