The first two seasons under Steve Sarkisian weren't stellar for the Texas Longhorns. The team posted a disappointing 5-7 record in his debut and then improved to 8-5, earning a bowl appearance. But last year was a breakthrough. The Longhorns stunned Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium, winning 34-24 as touchdown underdogs, which set the stage for a run to the College Football Playoff. They went on to secure 11 regular season wins and dominated Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Though they eventually fell to Washington in the CFP semifinals, the foundation was laid for future success. As the 2024-25 College Football betting season approaches, expectations are high for Texas to take another step forward. However, the challenge is steeper this time, as they transition from the Big 12 to a more demanding SEC schedule. Despite being loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, the team has already faced a significant setback during training camp. This has led the betting market to cool on Texas, adjusting their win total odds downward. The Longhorns are now tasked with surpassing a 10-win target at the online sportsbook, with heavy expectations to secure a spot in the newly expanded College Football Playoff.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Texas Longhorns 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Texas Over 10 Wins -134
Texas Under 10 Wins +115
A Case for the Over: Though the wide receiver corps has undergone a complete overhaul, the Longhorns are well-equipped at the quarterback position to help ease the transition. Quinn Ewers' decision to stay in Austin was crucial for the program after the now-junior displayed his passing acumen, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with a 22:6 TD/INT ratio last season. If Ewers struggles or falls victim to the injury bug, the Arch Manning era could begin sooner than expected. As Texas transitions from the Big 12 to the SEC, strong quarterback play will be vital in helping the Longhorns adapt to their new conference. While an in-state rivalry game at Baylor is significant, it doesn’t compare to squaring off against a team like Arkansas in Fayetteville—even if the Razorbacks are projected to be down this season according to the current CFB futures odds. The talent brought in via the transfer portal to catch passes is far from lacking. With the defense losing several key players from last year’s top-20 unit, the passing game will be leaned on heavily to secure another double-digit win season, especially after RB C.J. Baxter was lost for the season. The Longhorns have the chops to rise to the challenge and do exactly just that.
A Case for the Under: Texas was a stonewall against the run last season, allowing just 82.4 yards per game (No. 4) and measly 2.9 yards per carry (No. 5). Anchoring the defensive line, Byron Murphy II and T’vondre Sweat combined for seven sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, while almost nothing got past them on the ground. Both players were selected in the first two rounds of this year’s NFL Draft, stripping the Longhorns of significant production up front. Although the underclassmen replacements and transfer portal additions appear sufficient to field another solid front, it’s nearly impossible to immediately replace the impact of two high defensive draft picks. There are also glaring question marks in the secondary, which was torched for nearly 255 yards per game (No. 116) last season. Again, Texas did well in the transfer portal to address this weakness, but how quickly it will all come together remains to be seen. While the defense won't be a pushover, given the upper-tier talent the program recruits year in and year out, Texas' ability to secure another 10+ win season and qualify for the College Football Playoff will ultimately depend on whether the defense can effectively complement the offense and create a synergistic bond between the two units.
2024-25 Texas Longhorns Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | vs. Colorado State |
| Sep 7 | at Michigan |
| Sep 14 | vs. UTSA |
| Sep 21 | vs. ULM |
| Sep 28 | vs. Mississippi State |
| Oct 5 | OFF |
| Oct 12 | vs. Oklahoma |
| Oct 19 | vs. Georgia |
| Oct 26 | at Vanderbilt |
| Nov 2 | OFF |
| Nov 9 | vs. Florida |
| Nov 16 | at Arkansas |
| Nov 23 | vs. Kentucky |
| Nov 30 | at Texas A&M |
Of the five games currently on the betting board, the Longhorns are underdogs in only one—can you guess which? Other than the home clash with the Dawgs, with whom they share an identical 6.5-game SEC win total, Texas is favored by 3.5 points to snap Michigan’s 22-game win streak in the “Big House,” 8.5-point favorites to topple Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, and laying 4 against Texas A&M in the season finale in front of the 12th Man. Linemakers are showing Texas a lot of respect entering the CFB betting season, but I’m hesitant to buy in. While the Big 12 had some decent opponents on a yearly basis, the caliber of competition is nothing compared to the SEC. Texas also lost several key pieces from last year’s squad that I would have been more comfortable touting had they made the jump last year. The upcoming schedule is filled with too many potential landmines, which prevents me from recommending a bet be placed on the over. Ten wins is the bare minimum Texas needs to be in the CFP mix, and that’s exactly where I think they’ll end up. With that, I’ll take a flier on the under at the plus-money return and bank on at least one of those landmines tripping them up.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Texas Longhorns Under 10 Wins
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