The UCLA Bruins enter the 2024-25 college football season as one of the biggest unknowns in the Big Ten— their new conference after leaving the crumbling Pac-12— and possibly the entire country. The Chip Kelly era is in the books, despite producing three straight winning seasons and two bowl appearances. UCLA has parted ways with Kelly, who will now serve as Ohio State's offensive coordinator. In his place, alumnus and former Bruins running back Deshaun Foster has taken the helm, but his first Big Ten press conference left much to be desired and made a lasting impression for all the wrong reasons. He'll be joined by former Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Commanders OC Eric Bienemy. With only nine starters returning from last year's 8-5 team, which capped the season with a win and cover against the closing College Football odds versus Boise State in the LA Bowl (the program’s first postseason victory since 2014), the Bruins have brought in a significant number of players through the transfer portal to fill gaps and address weaknesses from last season. Despite these changes, oddsmakers remain skeptical about UCLA's prospects this season, as reflected in the Bruins’ futures odds across the board.
College Football Season Wins Odds
UCLA Bruins 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
UCLA Over 5 Wins +126
UCLA Under 5 Wins -155
A Case for the Over: Inconsistency plagued the Bruins under the previous coaching staff, especially on offense. Despite boasting a top-20 rushing attack and ranking in the top 40 overall, UCLA struggled mightily in the red zone, leading to a disappointing No. 78 ranking in scoring offense. The team's kicking woes—converting just 8-of-17 field goal attempts—further compounded the problem, putting immense pressure on the offense to finish drives with touchdowns instead of settling for field goal attempts. With Eric Bienemy now calling the plays, known for his ability to dial up the right calls in crucial moments, the Bruins are poised for a significant offensive improvement and likely to experience positive regression from last season’s 25.8 points per game average (No. 78). However, with so much turnover and new faces on the other side of the ball, the question remains: will it be enough to help the team exceed oddsmakers' expectations and topple the team’s modest 5-game win total odds? If achieved, QB Ethan Garbers, a deep wide receiver corps and the RB duo of T.J. Harden and Keenan Jones will have played a large role running behind an experienced offensive line to pull it off.
Case for the Under: The defense will be without several key players who were instrumental in allowing UCLA to possess one of the more formidable units in the Pac-12. Last season, the Bruins excelled at pressuring the quarterback, shutting down the run (No. 2), and allowed just over 18 points per game (No. 12). However, pass-rushers Laiatu Latu and Gabe Murphy, who combined for 20 of the team’s 40 regular season sacks, have moved on to the NFL, now playing for the Colts and Vikings, respectively. Additionally, linebacker Darius Muasau, a tackling machine, will be suiting up for the Giants. Expecting the remaining players and new portal acquisitions to replicate the production of these key losses is unrealistic. The defense, which already struggled in the secondary despite its talent up front, is likely to experience negative regression. While the cornerback positions seem solid, the safety spots remain uncertain, making it critical for the transfers to quickly adapt to the new system—a tough task considering the daunting early stretch of games @LSU, Oregon, and @Penn State. If the Bruins stumble in those matchups, they might find themselves needing a strong finish to hit their win total, and the latter part of the schedule doesn't look promising on paper.
2024-25 UCLA Bruins Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 31 | at Hawaii |
| Sep 7 | OFF |
| Sep 14 | vs. Indiana |
| Sep 21 | at LSU |
| Sep 28 | vs. Oregon |
| Oct 5 | at Penn State |
| Oct 12 | vs. Minnesota |
| Oct 19 | at Rutgers |
| Oct 26 | OFF |
| Nov 2 | at Nebraska |
| Nov 8 | vs. Iowa |
| Nov 15 | at Washington |
| Nov 23 | vs. USC |
| Nov 30 | vs. Fresno State |
I’m predicting a tough debut for the Bruins in their inaugural voyage through the B1G waters. It’s not that the talent isn’t there to exceed expectations and surpass their lowest win total since I started tracking every team; rather, I’m not convinced the coaching staff will figure it out in year one. Bienemy’s inability to secure a head coaching job in the NFL raises concerns, and Foster’s underwhelming Big Ten Media Days appearance didn’t do much to inspire much of any confidence. Whether due to nerves or inexperience—he's never been a head coach at any level—this situation sets off code red alarms for me. I’m looking to fade the Bruins' win total odds and bet against them early in the season, possibly even in Week 0 against Hawaii as inflated favorites. With too much turnover, a challenging schedule, and questionable coaching hires, I’m steering clear of UCLA in 2024-25.
College Football Win Total Prediction: UCLA Bruins Under 5 Wins
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