The USC Trojans have regressed the two seasons Lincoln Riley has called the shots in SoCal since coming over from Oklahoma. After winning 11 games to exceed its 9.5-game win total odds in 2022, Caleb Williams and Co. only managed seven regular season wins to come dreadfully short of exceeding what proved to be a laughable 10-game impost. Now that he was just anointed the No. 1 pick in this past year’s NFL Draft, the program is looking for someone else to step up and fill the big shoes left by the supreme talent. Linemakers are by no means bullish of the 2024-25 Trojans being able to do that with the win total set at 7.5. The program also isn’t expected to make much noise in its maiden voyage within the Big Ten evidenced by it currently installed a 21-1 dog at the online sportsbook to be the last team standing come the conclusion of the conference title game. Same goes on the national championship stage with USC offering up a +425 rate of return should it punch a ticket into the expanded College Football Playoff. Talent remains on the offensive side of the ball, but will it be enough to make up for a heavily rebooted defense that’s proven to be the Achilles heel of the new regime since taking the reins? Let’s break it all down and figure out the best way to attack the Trojans win total for the upcoming College Football betting season.
College Football Season Wins Odds
USC Trojans 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
USC Over 7.5 Wins -110
USC Under 7.5 Wins -110
A Case for the Over: As the season nears, the CFB betting market looks to be gravitating towards the over. While the 7.5-game impost remains intact, the over at one point was offering up an attractive +110 return on investment, while under bettors were forced to lay -128 juice. Oddsmakers now have it lined -110 both ways. It likely has everything to do with the belief that the offense won’t skip many beats. Remember, this is still USC and Riley is still calling the shots. QB Miller Moss showed a glimpse of what he can do in the Holiday Bowl after shredding a solid Louisville defense for 372 yards and 6 TD passes to help lead the Trojans to the 42-28 win and cover as 5-point dogs per the closing college football betting lines. If he fails to get the job done, portal import Jayden Maiava has the wherewithal to become the next big thing in SoCal. Each will have the benefit of a solid front wall holding the line, and there are playmakers galore littered throughout the backfield and pass catching corps spearheaded by WR Zachariah Branch and TE Lake Mcree. For it to all come into place however, the Trojans will be forced to hit the ground running with the early portion of the upcoming schedule extremely unkind.
A Case for the Under: The Trojans defense was nothing short of an abomination last season. Along with being allergic to forcing turnovers in the back half of the slate, USC got shredded for upwards of 432 yards per game (No. 119) which resulted in the unit serving up close to 35 points a rip (No. 121). It ranked out amongst the bottom third of the country at stopping both the run (No. 119) and pass (No. 105), and couldn’t get off the field on third down. When the offense ran out of gas late in the year, the team collapsed, evidenced by dropping five of its final six games both straight up and against the closing CFB betting lines. To address this, USC hired D’Anton Lynn, previously UCLA’s defensive coordinator, to overhaul the defense. With only four starters returning, mostly along the defensive line, and the back seven rebuilt through transfers and holdovers, it will likely take time for the unit to gel. Given the tough schedule, the defense will face an uphill climb right from the start.
2024-25 USC Trojans Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Sep 1 | vs. LSU |
| Sep 7 | vs. Utah State |
| Sep 14 | OFF |
| Sep 21 | at Michigan |
| Sep 28 | vs. Wisconsin |
| Oct 5 | at Minnesota |
| Oct 12 | vs. Penn State |
| Oct 19 | at Maryland |
| Oct 25 | vs. Rutgers |
| Nov 2 | at Washington |
| Nov 9 | OFF |
| Nov 16 | vs. Nebraska |
| Nov 23 | at UCLA |
| Nov 30 | vs. Notre Dame |
The Trojans’ 2024 schedule features a challenging slate, starting with the Week 1 opener against LSU in Las Vegas, where they’re currently installed 6-point Sin City underdogs. They also face tough matchups in their “Game of the Year” contests at the online sportsbook, which find them catching 8.5-points in the Big House against Michigan, 4.5-point Coliseum pups to Penn State, and 3.5-point home dogs against Notre Dame in the regular season finale. Additional games include home matchups against Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Nebraska, and road trips to Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington—a team they’ve fallen to in three of the last four seasons. Despite the recent market shift towards the over, I agree with the heavier juice that was initially on the under of their 7.5-game win total. The drastic change under center paired with the overhauled defense and transition into the Big Ten could lead to a losing season, marking a second consecutive year of unmet expectations for the Trojans.
College Football Win Total Prediction: USC Trojans Under 7.5 Wins
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