The Utah Utes have failed to cash the over of their season win totals at the online sportsbook for the past two years. Despite this, linemakers remain optimistic about the Utes' chances as they enter uncharted territory in the Big 12, setting their win total at 9.5 for the upcoming college football betting season. The Utes, who have been dominant in the WAC, Mountain West, and most recently, the Pac-12, are now poised to make a splash in their new conference. With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, Utah's national championship aspirations seem more attainable than ever. Fourteen starters return for what’s being touted as Kyle Whittingham’s best squad yet. The Utes are one of four new teams aiming to make an immediate impact in the Big 12, and oddsmakers have installed them as the +289 favorites to take home conference bragging rights. But should College Football futures bettors buy into the hype, or is it too tall an ask to expect instant success in a new environment? Let's break down the Utes' chances and determine whether they can meet these lofty expectations.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Utah Utes 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Utah Over 9.5 Wins -190
Utah Under 9.5 Wins +153
A Case for the Over: Injuries drained the Utah Utes' offensive power last season. Star quarterback Cam Rising missed the entire season, while key players like TE Brant Kuithe and RB Micah Bernard struggled with injuries. Their absence took a heavy toll on the offense, which averaged just short of 360 yards per game (No. 87) and ranked a dismal No. 116 in passing offense. The Utes managed only 24.5 points per game (No. 85), a sharp decline from the 38.6 points per game (No. 11) they put on the board the previous year. One bright spot was Utah’s ball security, with the team ranking No. 23 in turnovers, giving the ball away just 1.1 times per game. Rising, who has thrown only 14 interceptions in 27 career starts, will likely improve on that number in the upcoming season. With Georgia being the only team to dominate time of possession more than Utah last year, the Utes could be lethal if they continue to protect the ball and capitalize on their offensive possessions. With Rising, Kuithe, and Bernard back at full strength, Utah's offense is poised to be one of the highest-scoring units in not only the Big 12, but potentially the entire country.
A Case for the Under: The Utah Utes' defense was dominant against the run last season, ranking No. 5 nationally, and they excelled at pressuring the quarterback and making critical stops on third down. However, their pass defense struggled, allowing nearly 225 yards per game (No. 64) and 7.2 yards per pass attempt (No. 58), making it the Achilles' heel of the unit. This year, the defense returns eight starters, with several transfer portal additions expected to bolster the secondary. Their task will be made easier by a strong front seven, anchored by an experienced run-stopping trio up front and reliable tacklers in the middle. However, if the pass rush struggles to replace Jonah Elliss’s team-high 11 sacks, and the pressure on opposing quarterbacks falls off because of it, the performance of the secondary will be crucial in determining whether the defense improves or regresses under Morgan Scalley’s guidance. While the schedule's strength in terms of opposing quarterbacks is less daunting than last year, the pass defense remains a key area to watch throughout the season.
2024-25 Utah Utes Schedule
DATE | OPPONENT |
Aug 29 | vs. Southern Utah |
Sep 7 | vs. Baylor |
Sep 14 | at Utah State |
Sep 21 | at Oklahoma State |
Sep 28 | vs. Arizona |
Oct 5 | OFF |
Oct 11 | at Arizona State |
Oct 19 | vs. TCU |
Oct 26 | at Houston |
Nov 2 | OFF |
Nov 9 | vs. BYU |
Nov 16 | at Colorado |
Nov 23 | vs. Iowa State |
Nov 29 | at UCF |
It's remarkable how much respect oddsmakers are giving the Utes heading into the regular season. A quick look at the CFB betting lines for Utah's matchups reveals they're favored in every game. They’re slight 1-point road favorites in a litmus test clash against Oklahoma State and nearly 10-point favorites at home against Arizona the following week. In the “Holy War” against BYU, Utah is listed as a 16.5-point favorite following the second of two byes, and 8-point favorites on the road against Colorado. They’re also predicted to be 9-point favorites in the season finale at home against Iowa State, though I fully expect that line to shrink by kickoff provided all the pertinent pieces are in place. Utah’s only true road test will be in Stillwater, with tougher opponents coming to Salt Lake City—and no Kansas State, Kansas, or Texas Tech on the schedule. The Utes' schedule is tailor-made for a strong start, and I'm betting on them doing just that coming off that lost season. No stranger to bolting conferences for another, look for Utah to make themselves at home in their new Big 12 digs and do what’s required of them to take home conference bragging rights +289 and punch a ticket to the CFP +176.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Utah Utes Over 9.5 Wins
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