The honeymoon phase in Madison has only just begun. With Luke Fickell signed to a lucrative multi-year contract through 2031, there will come a time that the Wisconsin Badgers finally get a sniff of the College Football Playoff with it expanded to 12 teams. As the program with the most Power Five wins without a playoff appearance, Wisconsin’s traditional approach had grown stale, and Fickell seems to be the right person to rejuvenate it. However, expectations for the 2024 College Football betting season are modest, with oddsmakers setting Wisconsin’s win total odds at a conservative 6.5. This is a notable drop from the 9.5, 8.5, and 8.5 win totals set for the past three seasons—all of which the Badgers failed to reach. While it wasn’t supposed to be this way, building a program from the ground up takes time. Wisconsin returns just 10 starters from last year’s 7-6 team, which lost a 35-31 heartbreaker to LSU in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Although the Badgers are likely to win their fair share of games and make it to a bowl game, they’re not yet ready to compete as part of the 12-team field vying for a national championship. Expectations should remain tempered as Wisconsin works its way back to prominence. The turnaround will happen, just not this season.
College Football Season Wins Odds
Wisconsin Badgers 2024-25 Regular Season Win Total Odds
Wisconsin Over 6.5 Wins -130
Wisconsin Under 6.5 Wins +110
A Case for the Over: While I’d like to say the offense will be dramatically improved to the point that it will allow the defense to not have to be perfect for the team to compete, I can’t say that with confidence. Once again, the defense will likely bear the brunt of keeping the rebuild on track. Last season, while the offense was mediocre, the defense was a bright spot, ranking No. 40 overall and holding opponents to just over 20 points per game (No. 21). The unit was solid against both the pass (No. 38) and the run (No. 40). This year, the pass defense will likely be the strength again, with leading tackler S Hunter Wohler returning for his senior campaign and CB Ricardo Hallman, who led the team with seven interceptions, also back. The pass rush, which was severely lacking last season, should see improvement with the addition of John Pius via the transfer portal, with the defensive end expected to bring more intensity on passing downs. The interior of the defensive line also looks strong. If the mid-range pass defense can be tightened up, the Badgers could end up boasting one of the best overall defenses in the Big Ten and put the team in a position to win a few of the coin flip games linemakers dog them in.
A Case for the Under: The days of the Badgers dominating with a relentless rushing attack are in the past. Although Braelon Allen matched his career-high of 12 rushing touchdowns last season, he failed to surpass the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his collegiate career. This drop in production was largely due to an underperforming offensive line that only managed to pave the way for 161.0 rushing yards per game (No. 61) and an average of 4.6 yards per carry. The situation was further compounded when their best lineman, Nolan Rucci, transferred to Penn State to play tackle for the Nittany Lions. Despite the defection, new OL coach A.J. Blazer has a solid foundation to build on, anchored by returning starters Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman. They’ll be responsible for creating opportunities for Chez Mellusi and transfer portal addition Tawee Walker, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry and scored 7 touchdowns while at Oklahoma last season. On the passing front, Tyler Van Dyke, who underwhelmed in Miami, will take over the QB1 reins this season, aiming to finish his collegiate career on a high note. While I expect he improves the Badgers' No. 71-ranked passing offense of a year ago, he’ll need to significantly reduce his interceptions—he threw 12 last season—if he hopes to keep his starting job throughout the season.
2024-25 Wisconsin Badgers Schedule
| DATE | OPPONENT |
| Aug 30 | vs. Western Michigan |
| Sep 7 | vs. South Dakota |
| Sep 14 | vs. Alabama |
| Sep 21 | OFF |
| Sep 28 | at USC |
| Oct 5 | vs. Purdue |
| Oct 12 | at Rutgers |
| Oct 19 | at Northwestern |
| Oct 26 | vs. Penn State |
| Nov 2 | at Iowa |
| Nov 9 | OFF |
| Nov 16 | vs. Oregon |
| Nov 23 | at Nebraska |
| Nov 29 | vs. Minnesota |
I think the oddsmakers have nailed the Badgers' win total perfectly. At best, Wisconsin looks like a seven-win team this season. A lot would need to go right for them, especially with five games on the schedule against preseason top-25 teams, including tough road trips to USC, Iowa, and Nebraska. Additionally, Alabama, Penn State, and Oregon will visit Camp Randall. While I don't believe Wisconsin has a realistic shot at competing for a College Football Playoff bid, it wouldn't surprise me if they managed to pull off an upset in one of those games they're currently installed home underdogs in. Wins should be expected against Western Michigan, South Dakota, Purdue, and one of the road games at Rutgers or Northwestern. However, they likely won't win both of those matchups. Beyond that, it's a toss-up for the remaining games. Fickell may secure a signature win to appease the boosters and fan base, but I don't see him getting enough victories to exceed the Badgers' lowest win total in quite some time.
College Football Win Total Prediction: Wisconsin Badgers Under 6.5 Wins
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