The most anticipated game in college football this week involves Lane Kiffin and the Mississippi Rebels taking on Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kiffin spent three years in Tuscaloosa under Saban, modernizing Alabama’s offense to make sure college football’s preeminent dynasty continued to dominate. He now has one of the best offenses in the country in Oxford, and that has oddsmakers pegging this game to be a shootout. These teams combined to score 90 points in 2019 and 111 points in 2020.
Lane Kiffin should receive some cheers at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama when his Mississippi Rebels face the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday, October 2, 2021, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
College Football Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi Rebels +15
Alabama Crimson Tide -15
Total 79.5
Alabama has beaten Mississippi for five straight years, but the Rebels are one of the handful of teams that has defeated the Crimson Tide in back-to-back years in the Saban era. Ole Miss beat Alabama in 2014 and 2015 under Hugh Freeze, and the Rebels lost a 48-43 shootout to the Crimson Tide in 2016. Those games helped show Saban that he needed to adapt if he wanted to stay on top, and he has done a great job of that.
Although the Crimson Tide lost stars Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Najee Harris to the NFL, Alabama still has one of the best offenses in college football. Bryce Young has proven to be the real deal. In a year when new quarterbacks are struggling to fill the shoes of their predecessors, Young is thriving by completing 72.1% of his passes for 1,124 yards (9.2 YPA) with 15 touchdowns and an interception.
John Metchie III has been Young’s top receiver with 24 receptions for 240 yards and a touchdown. Jameson Williams is the big play threat averaging 24.9 YPR, and the Crimson Tide do a good job distributing the ball among their blue-chip prospects. The offensive line is giving Young plenty of time to throw, and they are averaging 4.6 YPC.
As for the Rebels, Matt Corral is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. Ole Miss is unbeaten through three games, and Corral has done an excellent job for this team. He is completing 68.8% of his passes for 997 yards while averaging 10.4 YPA with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo are the top options in the passing game for the Rebels. Drummond has 20 receptions for 339 yards and four touchdowns, while Mingo has 15 catches for 290 yards and three scores. Mississippi is averaging 6.2 YPC on the ground as Corral is a real threat with his legs along with Jerrion Ealy and Henry Parrish Jr.
Alabama’s defense is not as elite as usual. Florida was able to run the ball successfully against the Crimson Tide in Gainesville two weeks ago, so Ole Miss should find some success in the running game especially with Corral. The defensive line doesn’t have a lot of proven talent outside of D.J. Dale and Phidarian Mathis.
The Rebels rank 57th in Defensive SP+ coming into this game. Mississippi hasn’t seen an offense with nearly this much talent though as the Rebels have beaten Louisville, Austin Peay, and Tulane.
Prediction
The initial line in this game was way too high. Some oddsmakers opened Alabama as a 20-point favorite, leading to a run of bets on Mississippi early in the week. Action has stabilized just north of two touchdowns, but the Rebels are still the better play at this number. Ole Miss has the firepower to stay within two scores in what should be a shootout with a lot of touchdowns.
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