The Alabama Crimson Tide fell short of its goal last season, losing in the national championship game to Clemson. Alabama has superstar quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in the saddle and he is once again flanked by an embarrassment of riches. The Crimson Tide have high expectations and the current college football odds reflect their standing as one of the two best programs in the country. Alabama has an extremely high win total for 2019 but is talented enough to cover if things go well.
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Alabama regular season win total
Over 11: -153
Under 11: +126
Alabama Win Total Odds Analysis
Alabama only plays 12 games in the regular season, which means it needs to go undefeated in order for the “over” to hit on this wager. Even so, it is the heavy favorite. There is a sound level of reasoning from the bettors who chose that route. Alabama rarely loses more than one game in a regular season, and even if the Crimson Tide get nipped once this year, this bet will still push.
Alabama faces off against Duke, New México State, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Western Carolin and Auburn this season. The Crimson Tide should be a heavy favorite in most of those contests, but the games against Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn won’t be easy.
Alabama will be on the road against the Aggies and Auburn, and one loss in those games would keep this bet from hitting the “over.” Then again, the Crimson Tide is talented enough to run the table and pick up some money from those that have faith.
Alabama Odds
Tagovailoa is a Heisman Trophy candidate, but if he gets injured, all of a sudden the task gets much harder. The Crimson Tide had Jalen Hurts in relief a year ago but he transferred to Oklahoma to continue his college career. There are some talented quarterbacks behind Tua on the Alabama roster but it would be a considerable dropoff.
For that reason alone, it is fair to consider the “under” in this wager, especially considering the +126 payoff. Injuries are a part of the game and Alabama is deep enough to weather almost anything that comes its way, but an ill-timed issue for Tagovailoa could have a serious effect on this bet. Alabama should have another solid offensive line and running game, so he likely won’t be put in harm’s way too often, but freak accidents happen all the time and the fans of Alabama will certainly cross their fingers for good health.
Key Stats or Trends
Alabama has not lost more than one game in the regular season since all the way back in 2010, when the Crimson Tide went 10-3. Coach Nick Saban has since gotten this well-oiled machine into dominant showings every single year.
Alabama will once again be on the short list of national championship contenders in 2019, and while there are some strong opponents on the slate, the Crimson Tide may once again be favored in every game of the regular season.
The win total may seem high, but the fact that it didn’t go to 11.5 is a huge win for the bettors who want to back the Crimson Tide. This number gives the team some breathing room in the event of a loss, as a push would still be possible so the bettors would get their money back. It seems much more likely Alabama runs the table again than loses two games. Therefore, expect the “over” to keep getting slammed before the regular season begins.
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