Auburn Tigers at Florida Gators Odds Analysis

Auburn Tigers at Florida Gators Odds Analysis

With six teams currently ranked in the AP poll we’re going to see more games like this one with the SEC schedule kicking into gear. The conference will have a number of marquee games on the weekly docket. The Week 6 SEC game of the week features a pair of unbeatens with No. 7 Auburn Tigers visiting The Swamp to take on No. 10 Florida Gators in a cross-over tilt. Current college football odds have the Tigers favored against UF for the first time this century. CBS will televise this matchup at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 5, from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla.

College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu

Auburn Tigers -3
Florida Gators +3
Over/Under 48

Auburn at Florida Odds Analysis

Auburn puts its perfect 5-0 straight up and ATS record on the line in this one. And the Tigers will do so as the batting favorite for the first time in the last 11 meetings. It may be more but my research on the betting lines only dates back to 1995. The Tigers opened at -2.5 and they’ve apparently made believers of a lot of people with over 60 percent of the action backing the visitors. The line has gone back and forth between 2.5- and 3-points and it looks like sharps are staying away, at least for now. With two public teams in the biggest game of the week, we’ll surely see more action before kickoff.

Auburn Odds

The Tigers have been a money-maker with a perfect 5-0 ATS mark. It all started in the first game of the season when they scored a late fourth quarter touchdown to beat Oregon 27-21, covering the 4-point spread. Their only true road game to date was two weeks ago at Texas AM, and it was the only time the Tigers got points on the closing the line. They beat the Aggies outright 28-20. Last week may have been the coming out party for freshman quarterback Bo Nix, who threw for 335 yards and two scores against a good Mississippi State defense. The Tigers easily covered the 7.5-point spread and played over the closing total for a third straight game.

Florida Odds

I guess we’ll learn a lot more about the Gators this week. Sure they’re 5-0, but three of those wins came over FCS clubs Tennessee-Martin and Towson, and dysfunctional Tennessee by a combined score of 117-3. UF failed to cover the 40-point spread in last week’s 38-0 win over Towson. Stiffer competition has yielded closer results. The Gators beat Miami, 24-20, in the opener, losing against the 7-point line. They also needed a fourth quarter comeback to squeak by Kentucky, again failing to cover. UF is just 2-3 ATS

Key Stats

Just how good is Florida’s defense? A glance at the numbers says it’s pretty damn good. But peel away some of the layers and those thoughts might change. The Gators allow just 8.8 points per game, good for fifth nationally. That number is bolstered by shutout wins over a pair of FCS foes, and not very good ones at that. UF easily handled Towson, 38-0, and UT-Martin, 45-0. The Vols, meanwhile, were already beaten by Georgia Southern and BYU at home before bumbling their way to a 34-3 loss at Florida a few weeks back. Against the two decent teams they’ve played the Gators are giving up an average of 20.5 points and 357.5 yards per game. And Auburn is better than both of them.

Players to Watch

Can you believe it’s been eight years since these conference rivals played each other. Well, it has, which makes any recent history meaningless. Instead we’ll focus on the most important position on the football field. Both teams have quarterbacks just getting their feet wet. Nix is the first freshman to start at Auburn under Gus Malzahn. The coach’s confidence has paid off with Nix showing improvement each game. Last week he threw for 335 yards, which was more than half his total from the first four games. He connected on 76.2 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and no picks. Nix hasn’t thrown an interception since the opening game. Florida’s Kyle Trask makes his third start in place of injured Felipe Franks and will face a defense unlike any he’s seen so far this year. That’s why Auburn is a 3-point favorite on the college football betting line.

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