To the average college football fan, the only Group of Five team that has a legitimate chance of crashing into the College Football Playoff is UCF, but don’t count out the Boise State Broncos just yet. The Broncos are opening up the 2018 season ranked No. 22 in the nation, and they're going to have a few opportunities to prove themselves this year in a tough Mountain West Conference. The men from the Smurf Turf open up their season in Week 1 on the road with a tough non-conference game against the Troy Trojans.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 8 p.m. ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Boise State -10
Troy +10
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
Boise State is one of these teams that is generally on the square side, but the betting action has been relatively split in this game since lines first came out in the summer. The Broncos were 10.5-point favorites per the CFB betting odds then, and they've held right there over the course of the last four months.
With better-than-average defenses on both sides of the ball, it shouldn't be surprising that the total is as low as it is at 49.5 according to the NCAAF betting line with all signs pointing towards a potentially lower number than that at kickoff.
Matchup to Watch
Offensive line play isn't considered sexy, but early in the season, it might be the most important factor for Troy. The Trojans are looking for a replacement for four-year starter Brandon Silvers under center. Kaleb Barker, a dual-threat junior who has backed up Silvers for the past two seasons, is the man who is going to get the first shot on Saturday.
Though Barker might struggle in the early-going, the best friend for a new quarterback is a strong running game. Though last season's leading rusher, Jordan Chunn is gone, there are a slew of options to run the ball behind an offensive line that has four returning starters with a combined 72 starts between them.
However, Boise State is returning nine of its 11 starters from last season's defense that allowed 22.9 points per game. It's going to be tough to replace Leighton Vander Esch, a first-round pick in this year's NFL Draft though.
If the Trojans can keep Barker upright and plod away in the ground game, they'll have a shot at pulling off this upset. However, if the Broncos can hold Troy to 2.6 yards per rush as was the case in last season's 24-13 victory, the favorites should be easy victors.
Last Meeting
Revisionist history is easy to write, and we now know that Troy was the real deal last season from when it went into Baton Rouge and picked up a massive victory over LSU. The Trojans weren't the better team at Boise State last year, but they were arguably incredibly unlucky, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Of Boise State's 24 points, seven came thanks to a punt return, and seven came from a pick six. The Broncos only amassed 357 yards of offense, but they smothered Troy on the other side of the ball to narrowly cover the NCAAF betting line.
Though this Troy team isn't quite as strong as last year's squad on paper, coach Neal Brown has a way of keeping the cupboard stocked. There are 17 starters coming back from last year's team, and those men should take a lot of confidence in bringing Boise State clear across the country for this one at a normally-hostile Veterans Memorial Stadium.
Free ATS Pick
Troy only went 1-5 ATS at home last season, but the team lost just two home games over the previous two seasons.
Still, it's really hard to trust a Sun Belt team with a first-time starting quarterback against a veteran defense that has such high hopes coming into the season.
Brett Rypien isn't the best starting quarterback the Broncos have ever had, but he's a capable starter who can win games by merely not screwing up. If he doesn't make the big errors on Saturday, Boise State should get out of town with a double-digit victory.
NCAA Football Odds: Boise State 27, Troy 14
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