The College Football Playoff committee took a beating in the first round when all four games were decided by double-figures. Some questioned the inclusion of SMU and Indiana and those teams didn’t do the committee any favors in getting blown out of the tournament. The Boise State Broncos earned the No. 3 seed as the highest ranked G5 squad with its only loss on a last second field goal at Oregon earlier in the season. BSU faces the Penn State Nittany Lions in the first CFP quarterfinal game on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET with the Crypto Sportsbook having PSU as an 11-point favorite on the early line. The Nittany Lions smothered SMU 38-10 to advance in the tournament, easily covering the 9-point spread.
College Football Betting Lines
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State Betting Lines
Penn State Nittany Lions -11 / ML -396
Boise State Broncos +11 / ML +329
Over / Under 52.5
They’ve never met on the gridiron but Penn State and Boise State have a few things in common as they get set to play. Both squads were defeated by Oregon this season, which actually isn’t too bad considering the Ducks beat everybody they played to earn the No. 1 seed. In Week 2 the Broncos went to Autzen Stadium and played Oregon as close as any team has this season. BSU had a 7-point lead in the fourth quarter after a pair of touchdown runs by Ashton Jeanty but saw the lead disappear. Oregon won the game, 37-34, on a walk-off field goal.
Penn State had one of its best offensive games of the season amassing 523 yards and scoring the most points against Oregon this season. However, they lost the Big Ten Championship 45-37. Ironically, the highest point total against the Ducks before PSU was Boise State’s output in Week 2. There had been some concern about PSU’s offense and its inability to produce in big games. In their lone regular season setback the Nittany Lions tallied 13 points against Ohio State. Those fears were put to rest in the first round 38-10 dismantling of SMU with 189 yards on the ground.
Another common denominator between the programs is their success in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State has won all three of its appearances, the most memorable on New Year’s Day 2007 when the Broncos beat Oklahoma in overtime. They also beat TCU and Arizona. Penn State last played in the Fiesta Bowl during the 2017 season beating Washington for its seventh victory in as many trips. Boise State is the last non-Power 5 program to win the Fiesta Bowl and coach Spencer Danielson understands the enormity of the task at hand. “We might not have what everybody else has, but we definitely have enough,” he said.
What the Broncos do have is a guy who should’ve won the Heisman Trophy. There’s no denying Jeanty was the best player in college football this season. In 13 games Jeanty has amassed 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. He’s rushed for at least 127 yards in every game and six times he’s eclipsed the 200-yard mark while averaging 7.3 yards per carry. His lowest output of the season came in a win over FCS Portland State when he carried 11 times for 127 yards. That was also the only game he failed to score a TD.
Even when opponents key on stopping Jeanty he wears them down. He’s carried the ball more than 30 times in six of his last seven games. And Maddux Madsen does enough in the passing game to keep defenses honest. Madsen has 22 TD passes and more than 2,700 yards with just three picks.
The Mountain West Conference is probably the best G5 league out there, but that still doesn’t get BSU the respect it deserves. And we’ve seen the top G5 program get blasted in recent years like Liberty losing 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl last year. But Boise State is a program that’s been here before and they use the lack of respect to their advantage. They’re also underrated defensively making 11-points feel like 20. I’ll back the points and the UNDER.
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Penn State Same Game Parlay Picks
Boise State +11
Penn State / Boise State UNDER 52.5
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