With two teams having punched their ticket to the second round of the College Football Playoff, the second half of the bracket gets underway on Saturday afternoon when the Clemson Tigers visit the Texas Longhorns at 4 p.m. ET from Darrel K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Clemson was the last team to make it into the expanded CFP needing a win over SMU in the ACC Championship to secure the No. 12 seed. Clemson is the only three-loss team in the tournament and as such they are the biggest underdog on the first round board catching 12 points at the Bitcoin Sportsbook. A dominant group throughout the first half of the season, the Texas offense sputtered down the stretch scoring 20 points or less in three of its final four games. The total opened at 51.5.
College Football Betting Lines
CFP First Round Betting Odds
Clemson Tigers +12 / ML +358
Texas Longhorns -12 / ML -437
Over / Under 51.5
I can see why the Longhorns are a double-digit favorite. They have a tremendous homefield advantage and Clemson was fortunate to make the field. The Tigers don’t make the expanded CFP if they don’t win the ACC, and they were able to take down regular season champ SMU thanks to a walk-off 56-yard field goal. Of their three losses only one came during conference play, a 33-21 setback to Louisville in Week 10 when favored by 10.5-points. Clemson bookended the regular season with losses to good teams Georgia in the opener and South Carolina in the finale.
Up until their win over SMU, the Tigers had only one victory against a team that finished with a winning record. They beat Pitt, who finished 7-5, 24-20, in Week 12. It isn’t the most sterling resume for a team competing for a national title, but the Tigers have talent and they won games they needed. Still, I don’t think many people are jumping all over Clemson in this matchup.
Cade Klubnick developed into a fine quarterback for Clemson leading a passing attack that ranks 17th nationally averaging 274.1 yards per game. Klubnick has thrown for 3,303 yards with 33 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He was solid in the upset of SMU throwing for 262 yards and four TDs as the Tigers built a 31-14 lead after three quarters. I don’t envision Clemson having a ton of success against the Longhorns aggressive pass defense. And if the Tigers fail they will be in for a long day.
The Longhorns boast the nation’s best pass defense allowing only 143.1 yards while intercepting the second-most passes in the FBS and allowing only four TD passes. Opposing QBs completed fewer than 60 percent of their passes with a QB rating of just 95.2. Texas is good in every defensive metric ranking among the top 15 nationally against the run while allowing the third fewest yards and second fewest points. They allowed more than 20 points just twice during the regular season, one of those to Georgia in their lone setback, 30-15. The Dawgs put up 22 in the SEC Championship but needed overtime to get there.
What’s a little concerning for Texas is the offense going AWOL. They got past Texas AM in the final regular season game, 17-7, but failed to put the Aggies away after building a 17-0 lead. The Horns were shutout in the second half turning the ball over on consecutive series, including a pick-six for AM’s only points. The Horns also blew chances against UGA in the SEC title game. They had three more turnovers, including two Quinn Ewers interceptions, and failed on numerous chances to score points. They ended up kicking three field goals in the game and missed two other field goal attempts.
At this point the failures of the offense are troubling and playing in a big playoff game could only compound the issue. I do like the defenses on both sides to step up keeping the score below the total, and 12 points is a lot to pass up. I do like the Horns being more aggressive on offense and Ewers could have a nice game against a defense that was picked apart by SMU.
Clemson at Texas Same Game Parlay Picks
Texas -12
Clemson / Texas UNDER 51.5
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