Arizona State is trying to become a program that is perennially pushing for a quality bowl game, but Graham has been in a downward spiral after some initial success at the school. ASU is trying to shake off a disappointing 5-7 season in 2016 by turning it around this year.
There are questions at quarterback and throughout the secondary, but a game against an inferior New México State program should cure those ills, at least temporary. The Aggies have a fifth-year senior directing the offense, which is a plus, and they hope to score enough points to keep up in what should be a big-time shootout.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, August 31, 2017 at 10:30 p.m. ET at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
New México State +23.5
Arizona State -23.5
Over/Under 70.5
Odds Analysis
Despite a losing record last season, the Sun Devils enter as huge home favorites. The early action is coming in on New México State to cover, as it has a nice cushion as long as it can keep the game relatively close early on. The scoring total is really high but the gamblers aren’t being scared off as the majority of the early money is hitting the “over.”
Matchup to Watch
Manny Wilkins vs. Blake Barnett -- Generally this features one team against the other, but for the Sun Devils the opener will be a good time to possibly see each of their top two signal-callers. Wilkins is the incumbent who threw for 2,329 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions a season ago while adding 246 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
Barnett transferred in from Alabama and many thought he would win the job in the preseason, but thus far Wilkins has held on. If this game becomes a rout as expected, it would make sense for Barnett to see some time in the second half. Or, if Wilkins struggles, it’s not out of the question that Graham switches signal-callers to try to get a jolt.
Much of Arizona State’s fortunes this season will be riding on the quarterback, so it’s imperative to figure out which player is the best fit.
Key Stat
974. That’s the number of pass attempts in the career of New México State quarterback Tyler Rogers. He is returning as a fifth-year senior with a bunch of prior experience. Rogers has completed 57.8 percent of his passes in his three seasons with a yards per attempt of 6.5 and 42 touchdowns against 38 interceptions.
Those are not very good college numbers, and Rogers hopes all of his time under center will result in more success in 2017. If he throws a couple interceptions in this game, the Aggies will almost assuredly get blown out. However, ASU’s secondary was in shambles at the end of last year and it’s possible Rogers can take advantage of it again in this one.
The Aggies are going to have a tough time winning this game, and a dominant performance from their quarterback seems like the best way to keep it close.
Free ATS Pick
The Sun Devils have questions at quarterback, but they should be able to rely on the running game in this matchup. Kalen Ballage had 126 carries for 536 yards and 14 touchdowns a season ago while adding 44 catches for 469 yards. His dual-threat ability and nose for the end zone will help Arizona State take control in this one, as it’s hard to see New México State slowing him down.
The Sun Devils have a lot of question marks heading into 2017 but there shouldn’t be too many issues in this one, as they are the superior team across the board.
College Football Odds: Arizona State 41, New México State 24
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