Week zero kicks off on Saturday, August 27, 2022, with the full week one to follow starting on Thursday, September 1 and running through Monday, September 5, 2022. With that in mind, this is the perfect time to assess the trends of the teams. And then relate them to their motivational and personnel advantages or disadvantages. We can then evaluate the value of these trends against the betting line.
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Trends are a useful handicapping tool. And the longer the trends are, the more valuable they become for gamblers. Many squares will bet the bank on a game based on a few short-term trends. That mistake is a great way to take yourself out of the season before it starts.
Trends are a tool, just like the tools of roster experience, recruiting rankings, coaching, etc. A good bet is made out of several ingredients instead of one. Keep that in mind with trends. Trends can be the perfect spice to a wager that is also favorable in many ways.
Finally, always know that the oddsmakers are aware of all significant trends. After all, that is their job, which is another reason for not using trends in an imbalanced sort of handicapping method.
At lunch, it is generally not a practice to eat hot sauce only, just as it's usually not the case to eat the lunch meat alone. It takes all of the ingredients coming together to make a delicious sandwich. And so it goes for handicapping and the component of trends.
Week Zero Do or Die Matchup
It is true that week zero has quite a few mismatches on the schedule mixed in with some competitive matchups. But there is one game for one team where the entire season, program, and coaching future is on the line.
Scott Frost came home to mama in December of 2017. Frost was named head coach of his alma mater, the Nebraska Cornhuskers. And by all accounts, it was a grand slam home run hire. Except it has not worked out that way. Now in his fourth season, Frost faces a win (bowl) or else scenario.
Week zero brings a dangerous matchup in Ireland against the Big Ten rival Northwestern Wildcats. Nebraska opened as a 9.5-point favorite in the matchup. Nebraska is being touted for its apparently good coaching remake of coordinators and its transfer portal success. Also, Northwestern is coming off a terrible season and lacks offensive firepower even in its best seasons.
Thus, there is a potential personnel and coaching advantage for the Big Red. There is also the motivation of needing a big win to get the season off on the right foot. And then there is a key trend. Northwestern has failed to cover its last six away games played on Saturday. The Wildcats have also failed to cover four of their previous five season openers.
Backyard Brawl Returns
Once upon a time, the famed Backyard Brawl rivalry between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Pitt Panthers was among the best in the land. But conference realignment separated these two old foes. Thankfully, the Backyard Brawl will renew on Saturday, September 1, at Pitt.
West Virginia has consistently come out of the gate in good fashion. The Mounties have a mark of 10-3 against the spread in September. By contrast, the Panthers have covered only three of their last ten season openers. Pitt opened as a 6-point favorite. Thus, West Virginia looks like a live dog in a rivalry matchup.
Notre Dame Opens at the Shoe
And then there is the Saturday, September 3, prime time matchup of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State opened as 14.5-point chalk. The Buckeyes are determined to redeem themselves for 2022 after getting mauled at Michigan and blowing a College Football Playoff bid. At the same time, Notre Dame opens its first full season under head coach Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish have covered six of their last seven Saturday away games.
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