It’s not always easy to tell what a wise guy is up to, but paying close attention the to line and the handle can help you make a smarter wager. It can also make you some coin at top offshore sportsbooks. And now that every college football team has played a few games we have a better idea of who and what they are. And so do the wise guys.
Following sharp action in a few games last week proved profitable with LSU and Penn State earning cover wins. Wise guy action on the Nittany Lions moved the line a touchdown yet they still managed to cover by dropping 38 second half points on Buffalo for a 45-13 victory. And the game of the week was an instant classic with the Bayou Bengals showing off their new-look offense in a 45-38 win over Texas, covering the 6.5-point closing line.
The house doesn’t always win and neither do wise guys. We saw some sharp action on Alabama last week, which was a bit alarming considering the Tide was laying 54.5-points on the closing line to an overmatched New Mexico State squad. That’s a lot of points and the Aggies did just enough to stay with the spread. We’ll dive into a few wise guy picks for Week 3 of the 2019 college football season, and remember BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS contest. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place your bet.
Week 3 Wise Guy Picks
Western Kentucky vs. Louisville
Proving that wise guys can find value in any line, there has been some sharp action on this neutral site contest. Both teams have a new coach with Louisville looking to put the dumpster fire left by Bobby Petrino behind them. The Cardinals snapped a 10-game losing streak beating FCS Eastern Kentucky last week. That was their first win since taking down Western Kentucky, 20-17, last September. The Hilltoppers were spotted 7.5-points on the opening line and over 60 percent of the betting public remembered that game by gobbling up WKU.
Not so fast say the wise guys. The Cardinals didn’t win their opener but they played Notre Dame tough, falling 35-17. Louisville was one of the worst defensive teams last season allowing over 50 points in each of its last five games so shutting out EKY, 42-0, was kind of a big deal. Sharps are buying the Cardinals in this one pushing the line to -10.5.
Miami (Ohio) at Cincinnati
Another line that has gone against the public is in this game. After the Bearcats got mauled by Ohio State last week they lost some of their backers. Cincinnati opened -15 with Miami getting a majority of the early play. Instead of the line dropping to even out the money, it moved 2-points the other way, a clear sign that wise guys are backing Cincinnati. It’s easy to get down on a team after getting blasted, 42-0, especially when you think that team is pretty good.
Well, the Buckeyes make a lot of teams look foolish and it isn’t easy to win in the Horseshoe. Is it still called the horseshoe even though it doesn’t look like a horseshoe anymore? Anyway, you get the idea. With the Bearcats playing someone in their weight class they should have a better showing. And they are still a decent team which is why they are getting support.
Stanford at Central Florida
Wise guys move the needle on a betting line because they research teams and games more than the average bettor. They’re not always right but they hit more than they miss. When we see sharp action on a game like this we also take notice. Stanford is one of the better Pac-12 teams and has been for a number of years. When the Cardinal gets 6-points on the opening line it must seem like a gift. Sure Stanford got whacked, 45-20, last week by USC playing without K.J. Costello but things will be different this week, right? Over 60 percent of the betting public thinks so.
There are a few things that make the Knights inviting to sharps. They’ve won 16 straight home games, their offense remains one of the most potent in college football and Stanford is travelling across the country to play a team that averages 55 points per game. UCF is underrated by most average bettors but not wise guys. The line spiked to UCF -7.5 and could go higher.
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