If you can keep up with the wise guys there is a chance to make some money on the college football betting line. And those wacky dudes did it again last week, cashing winning tickets in the three games we were tracking. It’s not always easy to tell what wise guys are doing, but paying close attention to the spreads, totals and handle can help you make a smarter wager and hopefully turn a profit at top offshore sportsbooks.
Wherever there’s value wise guys will find it. They did last week with Louisville. With sharp money backing the Cardinals, they went out and finished off the sweep of the Kentucky directional schools, covering the 10.5-point closing line in a 38-21 win over Western Kentucky. That came a week after a 42-0 pasting of Eastern Kentucky. Sharps were also counting on a bounce back from Cincinnati and the Bearcats obliged, with a win and cover over Ben Roethlisberger’s old school Miami, Ohio. Finishing off their sweep on the parlay card, wise guys backed UCF in its 45-27 win over Stanford, covering the 9.5-point closing line. All in all it was a very profitable week for those goofy bastards. Hopefully you paid attention and pocketed a few bucks as well.
If you didn’t, here’s a chance to make up for it. We’ll dive into a few wise guy picks for Week 4 of the 2019 college football season, and remember BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS contest. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place your bet.
Week 4 Wise Guy Picks
Michigan at Wisconsin
Wise guys don’t just impact the spread with their wagers they can also affect the over/under. Both teams are coming off a bye and there are no major injury concerns. The weather isn’t going to be a factor either. So to see the total dip 3.5-points after hitting the board tells me that sharps are backing the under. It isn’t a stretch to think that since the Badgers have yet to allow a point in two games. And Michigan’s defense has been one of the best in the country the last few seasons.
The under was played by just under 60 percent of the betting public, which isn’t enough to tip the scales that dramatically. There’s only one thing that could force a significant drop. Wisconsin scored 110 points in its two wins, but Michigan is a much stiffer test than South Florida and Central Michigan. UM’s offense didn’t do much last time out in a 24-21 overtime win over Army, so maybe the wise guys are on to something.
Temple at Buffalo
Once again showing that wise guys can find value in any line there’s been movement on the spread for this MAC/AAC showdown. This isn’t a high profile matchup and there likely won’t be a lot of money wagered on it, so to see the line move a field goal is unusual. The line opened at Temple -11 and was wagered to -14 with the betting public evenly split. That’s an alarming shift and signifies some shenanigans at work.
The Owls are coming off an upset win over Maryland, which knocked the Terps out of the national rankings, and they are 2-0 straight up and against the spread. Buffalo was torched, 35-17, by Liberty last week and is 0-3 ATS. Everything is pointing in the direction of Temple and the wise guys are hooting at the Owls.
Notre Dame at Georgia
This is the biggest nonconference game of the season and will have an impact on the national rankings and the CFP outlook moving forward. No. 7 Notre Dame pays its first visit to Athens for a showdown with No. 3 Georgia and is a two-touchdown underdog. It wasn’t that way when the line hit the board. The Irish opened +11 with both sharps and squares hitting the Bulldogs early forcing a 3-point spike. Neither team has been tested yet this season, but Georgia has looked better in its cupcake games routing a trio of overmatched opponents by a combined score of 148-23.
Georgia felt it should have been granted a berth in last season’s playoff, instead the invite went to the Irish, and they were destroyed by Clemson, 30-3. A gifted Tigers’ defense was too fast and physical in that one for Ian Book, who struggled mightily. These Dogs are just as mean and they have something to prove.
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