There’s a reason why sportsbooks are in business and that’s because they also win. Proving that wise guys don’t know everything we came up with a big ohfer on the Week 4 games we tracked. Wise guys we followed over the first few weeks we’re on an absolute heater so something had to happen, and it did. Still, if you can keep up with sharp action there is a great chance to turn a profit on the college football betting lines. It’s all about being informed to make smart wagers.
We tracked some sharp action on the total for the Michigan-Wisconsin game, which forced a drop in the number. Wise guys weren’t counting on the Wolverines playing with nine defenders when Jonathon Taylor got the ball. Two garbage time Michigan touchdowns, the last with under five minutes left, pushed the final tally over the total. And boy, were the wise guys off on the Temple-Buffalo game. Sharp money pushed the spread a field goal in favor of the Owls and they lost outright by 16. Finally, Notre Dame showed some balls by hanging with Georgia to cover the spread, denying sharps a win on the line.
Wise guys don’t give up after a bad week and neither should you. We’re still in the red in the games we’ve followed and it’s time to get back at the books. We’ll dive into a few wise guy picks for Week 5 of the 2019 college football season, and remember BookMaker will have spreads and totals for every FBS contest. Visit BookMaker.eu when you’re ready to place your bet.
Week 5 Wise Guy Picks
Virginia at Notre Dame
Notre Dame upset the wise guy apple cart last week and the Irish are getting some sharp backers for their game with undefeated Virginia. The line hit the board at Notre Dame -11 and that was gobbled up by UVA faithful, who probably think their team is better than it actually is. The Irish didn’t win last week, but they sure put up a good fight, something they haven’t done against top-level competition recently. Notre Dame went toe-to-toe with No. 3 Georgia on the road and had a chance late in the game.
Even without a running game the Irish covered the 15.5-point spread by matching Georgia’s physicality. Notre Dame won its last three games when playing as a home favorite of at least 10 points. And while many feel the points are a gift for the Cavaliers, wise guys see it differently, increasing the spread to -12.5. Sure the Cavs are undefeated with nice wins over Pitt and Florida State, but those clubs aren’t near what Notre Dame is bringing.
San Jose State at Air Force
Once again showing that wise guys can find value in any line there’s been movement on the spread for this Mountain West tilt. San Jose State hasn’t won many games over the past few seasons so last week’s triumph as a three-touchdown dog at Arkansas was impressive. Did the Spartans get lucky or are they just tired of losing? When the line surfaced for this matchup the Falcons were a 21-point favorite. Certainly the Falcons at home should chew up one of the worst run defenses in the country. Over 55 percent of the early action thought the same thing.
So how the heck does he spread drop 3-points? Clearly the Spartans are getting some sharp action. Playing on a big stage San Jose State delivered its first win over an SEC opponent. Granted it wasn’t the best the league had to offer, but it’s an SEC opponent. On the road. This is a different San Jose State team. They have stability at quarterback and an athletic defense. And now they have a confidence-building win.
Mississippi at Alabama
When a line moves as much as it has for this game there is usually something going on behind the scenes. Alabama hit the board at -34 and was backed by over 60 percent of the early action. That kind of play shouldn’t force a 4-point swing. More than likely some wise guy was pulling strings and the line jumped to -38.
Bama has been its dominant self this season winning four games by an average of 39.3 points. The Tide also smoked Ole Miss 62-7 in last year’s meeting. Conference games have a little more meaning and I expect Bama to come out firing. The Rebels are not good at defending the pass and Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire. Wise guys like Bama for the cover on a lofty spread.
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