It was a banner year for Central Florida in 2017, winning the American Athletic Conference title, reaching a New Year’s Six bowl and finishing undefeated. But the Knights paid the price for their success with head coach Scott Frost pilfered by Power 5 Nebraska. New coach Josh Huepel looks to pick up where Frost left off and the Knights opened as the favorite to win the league, though they will be tested by South Florida and Temple in the East Division.
The AAC might be the best Group of 5 conference with several teams capable of winning the title. And let’s not forget that UCF was a longshot at +2500 last year, so there is hope for teams like SMU, Tulane and Cincinnati. Memphis is the second favorite at +229, but the Tigers lost their quarterback, top receiver and offensive coordinator from a 10-win team that took UCF to double overtime in last year’s title game
2018 AAC Championship Odds at BookMaker.eu
Central Florida +122
Memphis +229
Houston +450
South Florida +926
Navy +1301
Temple +1500
Southern Methodist +4000
Tulane +4000
Cincinnati +5000
Tulsa +10000
Connecticut +30000
East Carolina +50000
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Two years removed from a winless season, the Knights reversed their fortunes and were the only unbeaten FBS team in 2017. Following a Peach Bowl victory over Auburn, the only team to beat CFP champion Alabama, the Knights proclaimed themselves national champions. If there was a Group of 5 team that deserved to be in the CFP, last year’s UCF squad was it. Heupel gets his first head coaching job after building Missouri’s offense, and he inherits the best player in the conference and one of the best in the country in quarterback McKenzie Milton along with a stable of play makers.
Despite a coaching change and the loss of five starters from each side of the football, there is plenty to like about the Knights chances of repeating. Milton is the key to the offense and he proved to be one of the nation’s best in 2017, finishing among the national leaders in all major passing categories. And the Knights were the highest scoring team in the FBS with over 48 points per game.
Memphis came in as the second favorite, but there are more questions surrounding the Tigers after they won 10 games last season. They did lock up coach Mike Norvell for another season, giving the program some continuity. But the departure of quarterback Riley Ferguson and receiver Anthony Miller will hinder the offensive production. The Tigers have built a solid foundation after years of floundering as a program and they will contend for a repeat of the West crown.
Houston made some changes to get back into the upper echelon of the conference and the Cougars could be the biggest wild card in the conference. They have the league’s best defender in Ed Oliver and the group was further bolstered by the addition of three transfers. If the offense can get rolling behind quarterback D’Eriq King and new coordinator Kendal Briles, the Cougars are a strong pick.
Darkhorses
Playing UCF in the final regular season game with the division title on the line, South Florida came up a touchdown short and settled for a Birmingham Bowl berth instead. The Bulls were the favorite to win the league championship at the start of last season, but the loss of do-everything star Quinton Flowers has impacted their odds in 2018. How quickly the Bulls find a replacement at quarterback will make or break their second season under Charlie Strong.
Navy is right in the middle of the odds board and the Middies are looking for a bounce back season after going 7-6 overall in 2017. Quarterback Malcolm Perry looks to get the triple-option back in gear and is poised for a big season. However, the Middies have an additional game with their opener in Hawaii followed by a league matchup with Memphis. They also play Notre Dame in San Diego, further adding to their frequent flyer miles.
Longshots
Given what UCF accomplished last season, can you really count any team out of the race? UConn and East Carolina are the only sure things, Tulsa is starting to build a foundation under Philip Montgomery, but the Golden Hurricane is a season or two away from becoming a contender. SMU posted a winning record and reached a bowl game for the first time in five years, but the success cost them head coach Chad Morris, who took the Arkansas gig. Sonny Dykes takes over with his Air Raid offense, but the Mustangs don’t have the personnel to be successful right away.
AAC Predictions
It’s hard to go against UCF as the Knights look for a repeat. Milton is a star and should be in the Heisman conversation this season. But with plenty of changes, they aren’t the overwhelming favorites. Strong is a quarterback away from a championship season and he has some potential in Chris Oladokun, Brett Kean and Arizona State transfer Blake Barnett. It one of those players steps up, I like the Bulls to dethrone UCF in the East and defeat either Memphis or Houston in the conference championship game.
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