As good as the oddsmakers are at setting lines, it’s not an exact science. Opening spreads for the 2018 college football season rolled out just after Alabama knocked off Georgia for the national championship in January. Not really, but it sure seems like it. A lot can happen in the months that separate the spring from the start of the season in the fall. Players transfer, coaches do stupid stuff to put their programs in peril, and of course there are injuries, which are as much a part of the game as the forward pass.
For the most part the people who establish the spreads are good at what they do and they make a lot of money doing it. There are times when the betting public lets them know if they might be off on a few games, and when that happens we get a change in the line. There has been significant line movement in some games and a few even jumped the fence from when the numbers first came out. Technically the season has already started with a few Week Zero games, but the schedule takes off in full force this weekend and you can wager on every college football at Bookmaker.eu.
Week 1 Major Line Moves
New Mexico State at Minnesota
The Gophers stumbled to five wins last year and failed to qualify for a bowl game under first-year coach P.J. Fleck. On the other side it was a monumental campaign for New Mexico State, which ended a 57-year bowl drought. Still a Big Ten team against a squad the Sun Belt didn’t want might offer a higher line than the opening 17.5 points Minnesota was giving. We saw the Aggies last weekend, and they didn’t look good in a loss to Wyoming. Soon after that 29-7 game, the line took a big swing in favor of the Gophers, who climbed to a 22.5-point favorite.
Houston at Rice
This is another matchup that saw a jump in the line after last week’s games. The Houston Cougars opened as a 21-point road favorite in their inner-city battle with Rice, but the line jumped to 26 after the Owls struggled to get by FCS Prairie View AM. It took a field goal with no time on the clock for Rice to avoid an embarrassing loss, but the Owls did match their win total from last season. It’s a different story on the other side of town. The Cougars have one of the best defensive players in the country in Ed Oliver and are considered a contender to win the AAC West.
Navy at Hawaii
The Rainbow Warriors were another team that changed the line based on their performance in their Week Zero game. Playing as a 17-point road dog against Colorado State, UH showed signs of an offense that was missing last year and outlasted the Rams for the outright victory. Bettors flocked to the Warriors and the 14-points they were getting, pushing the spread down to +10.
Texas vs. Maryland
It’s hard enough to prepare for a major college football game, but try doing if following the death of a teammate, the suspension of your head coach and with all the eyes in the college football world gazing down on you. The turmoil surrounding the Maryland Terrapins and the “toxic” culture fostered by soon-to-be former coach D.J. Durkin makes Urban Meyer’s situation look easy. Concerns about the Terps readiness for this game played a big role in the line moving from Maryland +8.5 all the way up to +13.5. And we could see more movement before kickoff on Saturday.
Bowling Green at Oregon
Taking a step toward respectability last season, the Ducks won seven games and showed signs that their up-tempo offense was back. They have a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is getting plenty of preseason hype and they could actually have a decent defense. The Ducks opened as a 26.5-point home favorite against Bowling Green and the number has steadily risen. The Falcons aren’t very good and are destined to finish at the bottom of the MAC East. With Oregon getting plenty of action, the line has climbed to -32 and could go even higher.
Michigan at Notre Dame
This is one of several games that saw the line jump the fence and the action is spread evenly between the visiting Wolverines and the Fighting Irish. Michigan opened at -1 and saw that number get as high as -3 before being wagered back down. News that UM will be without its leading receiver caused some excitement among Notre Dame faithful, who moved their team into the role of a 1-point favorite. This is the most highly-anticipated season opener and both teams have playoff aspirations, so don’t be surprised if the line continues to dance around.
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