It’s been a volatile time at the betting window in the early part of the college football betting week. We’ve seen the typical ½- to 1-pont moves on a number of games, but we’ve also witnessed several lines move as much as a field goal with two shifting as much as four points while another two jumped the fence. What in the Bear Bryant is going on here?
The biggest Week 12 line move so far involved Conference USA foes Marshall and UTSA. The Herd opened at -23 and the line was quickly wagered to -27. Randy Moss isn’t suiting up for Marshall so it makes us wonder just how bad the Roadrunners are. A bunch of SEC teams go out of conference this week for a tune up and the lines have shifted on those games. In the case of Georgia and LSU the spread actually dropped by a few points. Still, they’re both favored by more than 40 points. No. 1 Alabama has covered its last four games with two spreads nearing 30 points and a third at three touchdowns. The Tide has been so dominant recently, we haven’t seen a line for this week’s game against The Citadel. Now, let’s take a look at some of the biggest movers in early Week 12 betting action at BookMaker.eu.
Week 12 Major Line Moves
UT-San Antonio at Marshall
Opening Line: Marshall -23
Current Line: Marshall -27
The biggest line move of any game on the board took place in this one with the Herd adding four points to their opening spread of -23. Marshall is decent this season, reaching bowl eligibility with a cover win over Charlotte last week as a 13.5-point favorite. But the public is soaking this one up knowing the Roadrunners are awful in just about every area. UTSA has played against some big spreads this season and has proven to be a good team to bet against, going just 2-7-1 ATS. The Roadrunners rank next to last in scoring average and they are 99th in points allowed, not a good combination. As a result their average scoring margin is nearly 18 points per game in the negative. If things weren’t bad enough for UTSA, they could be down another quarterback after D.J. Gillins left the last game.
San Diego State at Fresno State
Opening Line: Fresno State -16
Current Line: Fresno State -12.5
What’s up with the Aztecs? They saw the line for last week’s game with UNLV spike 6-points and this week’s line is moving as well. And again it’s favoring SDSU, only this week the Aztecs are the underdog. SDSU opened as 18-point chalk against the Rebels and by the time the game kicked off they were laying 24 points. It didn’t matter because they were upset on their home turf. Heading to the Valley this week, they opened as a 16-point dog, only to have a majority of the betting public throw down on them early in the week, forcing the line down to its current number. The Aztecs still have a chance to win the MWC West, but they need a victory this week. It’s quite possible they were looking past UNLV and the public is counting on that as well.
Northwestern at Minnesota
Opening Line: Northwestern -3.5
Current Line: Minnesota -1
The Wildcats clinched the Big Ten West and their first trip to the conference championship by winning at Iowa last week – and they still have two games left in the regular season. It leads us to wonder what exactly they have to play for in those outings. Many bettors are asking the same question and have failed to come up with a satisfactory answer, thus leaving the Gophers as the betting favorite. Northwestern hit the board as 3.5-point chalk, but the Gophers picked up steam at the betting window moving the line in their favor until it eventually jumped the fence. There is plenty at stake for Minnesota, which needs a win in its last two outings to become bowl eligible. The Gophers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season, but the Wildcats aren’t going to lay down. “Champions win football games,” coach Pat Fitzgerald said. “We are going to have a pedal down mentality here. I’m never going to take my foot off the gas.”
Texas Tech at Kansas State
Opening Line: Texas Tech -4
Current Line: Texas Tech -6
The way this season has gone, Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is going to have more gray hair on his head. Wait, is that even possible? If it was it sure would happen. Coming off an 8-win season and Cactus Bowl victory, hopes were high in Manhattan, but things haven’t gone according to plan. The Wildcats need two wins just to become bowl eligible and avoid Snyder’s fourth losing season his last 23 years of coaching. Making the task more difficult is the possible return of Tech quarterback Alan Bowman, who missed last week’s game due to injury. The Red Raiders saw the line jump two points from its opening -4 with the help of over three-quarters of the early action in their favor.
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