The stakes are extremely high in the college football season as teams throughout the country are jockeying for bowl game status. The oddsmakers have a pretty solid grasp on the strength of these teams, but there are always discrepancies between the opening lines and where the money comes in eventually. There are already some games that have seen significant movement, as the sharps are on certain wagers this week. Take a look at some of the clear wiseguy picks for Week 13.
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Odds Analysis
The Nebraska Cornhuskers opened as 7.5-point favorites on the road against the Maryland Terrapins. However, heavy money came in on Maryland to cover and the spread has dropped all the way to four points with a few days before kickoff. The scoring total has also dropped from 66 points down to 62, as the “under” has been hammered since the line came out. It will be interesting to see if there is any more significant action on one side or the other in the next couple of days.
The TCU Horned Frogs will hit the road to face off against the Oklahoma Sooners. The spread has remained steady as Oklahoma is the 19-point favorite, but the scoring total has steadily increased this week. The over-under is now set at 65 points, which is three points higher than where it began.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are hitting the road to face off against the Northwestern Wildcats. Minnesota has put together a really solid season and opened as 7-point favorites. At that line the sharp money was all over the Golden Gophers. The wiseguys should feel good about jumping on the line early as it is all the way up to 13.5 points.
The Virginia Tech Hokies are at home against the Pittsburgh Panthers this week. The oddsmakers thought this was a virtual toss-up as Virginia Tech was instituted as only a 1-point favorite, but the spread has now lifted to four. That is a big deal as a three-point loss by Pitt would not result in a cover when it wouldn’t have before the line movement. The sharp bettors were on it early.
Washington State was listed as a 15.5-point favorite against the Oregon State Beavers when the line opened, but Oregon State has been playing pretty well of late. The wiseguys believed that spread was too high and the money has been pouring in on the Beavers to cover. The spread has now dropped to 11.5 points after 96 percent of the action came in on Oregon State.
College Football Pick
The LSU Tigers are 10-0 and on track to make it to the College Football Playoff. They recently knocked off Alabama and have an easy game this week in a matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks. There won’t be much drama about who wins the game but the spread is huge, so LSU has to dominate to cover.
The Tigers opened as 46-point favorites and the line has moved up to 48 points. The scoring total has dropped. It was originally listed at 72.5 points and now it has dropped to 69 points. One of these movements is correct but the other is not. LSU is going to cover the spread by keeping the margin above 48 points but this one should be a shootout.
College Football Pick: LSU-Arkansas game to go over 69 points
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